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Most research of upper respiratory tract disease (mycoplasmal URTD) in the threatened Mojave Desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) has worked under the hypothesis that the pathogen, Mycoplasma agassizii, has a relatively consistent and predictable effect on tortoise populations across their natural range. In contrast, we hypothesized that multiple factors influence the prevalence of disease and analyzed biological and environmental variables that vary significantly across the Mojave Desert. We used multiple regression models to analyze associations between mycoplasmal URTD and the genetic structure of 24 tortoise populations, levels of natural antibody (NAb) to M. agassizii in tortoises (one component of the innate immune system), precipitation, and colder thermal regimes. We detected a significant, positive association between mean levels of NAb and seroprevalence to M. agassizii. We hypothesized that NAbs may provide tolerance to mycoplasmal infections and that more tolerant populations may act as host reservoirs of disease. We also detected significant associations between colder winters and mycoplasmal URTD, suggesting that colder winters may depress tortoise immune resistance against M. agassizii or enhance conditions for the growth of M. agassizii.

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