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Abstract. The Tarim River basin, located in Xinjiang, NW China, is the largest endorheic river basin in China and one of the largest in all of Central Asia. Due to the extremely arid climate, with an annual precipitation of less than 100 mm, the water supply along the Aksu and Tarim rivers solely depends on river water. This is linked to anthropogenic activities (e.g., agriculture) and natural and semi-natural ecosystems as both compete for water. The ongoing increase in water consumption by agriculture and other human activities in this region has been enhancing the competition for water between human needs and nature. Against this background, 11 German and 6 Chinese universities and research institutes have formed the consortium SuMaRiO (Sustainable Management of River Oases along the Tarim River; http://www.sumario.de), which aims to create a holistic picture of the availability of water resources in the Tarim River basin and the impacts on anthropogenic activities and natural ecosystems caused by the water distribution within the Tarim River basin. On the basis of the results from field studies and modeling approaches as well as from suggestions by the relevant regional stakeholders, a decision support tool (DST) will be implemented that will then assist stakeholders in balancing the competition for water, Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 84 C. Rumbaur et al.: Sustainable management of river oases along the Tarim River acknowledging the major external effects of water allocation to agriculture and to natural ecosystems. This consortium was formed in 2011 and is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. As the data collection phase was finished this year, the paper presented here brings together the results from the fields from the disciplines of climate modeling, cryology, hydrology, agricultural sciences, ecology, geoinformatics, and social sciences in order to present a comprehensive picture of the effects of different water availability schemes on anthropogenic activities and natural ecosystems along the Tarim River. The second objective is to present the project structure of the whole consortium, the current status of work (i.e., major new results and findings), explain the foundation of the decision support tool as a key product of this project, and conclude with application recommendations for the region. The discharge of the Aksu River, which is the major tributary of the Tarim, has been increasing over the past 6 decades. From 1989 to 2011, agricultural area more than doubled: cotton became the major crop and there was a shift from small-scale to large-scale intensive farming. The ongoing increase in irrigated agricultural land leads to the increased threat of salinization and soil degradation caused by increased evapotranspiration. Aside from agricultural land, the major natural and semi-natural ecosystems are riparian (Tugai) forests, shrub vegetation, reed beds, and other grassland, as well as urban and peri-urban vegetation. ...

Over one hundred artifacts, including shards, chopped wood, bronze and iron ware debris as well as footprints, have been discovered during archaeological investigations at and around the central Taklamakan Desert Yuansha Site (38°52′N, 81°35′E). Dating ( 14 C and OSL) and landform study show that the present-day dry Keriya River once sustained an oasis human settlement in 2.6 ka BP, historically falling into the Spring and Autumn Period (716-475 BCE) of Chinese history. The chronology and archaeological interpretations also show that some 400 years later, the local Keriya River channel had shifted 40 km southeast to sustain a Western Han (206 BCE-25 CE) Wumi settlement at the Karadun site. In the meantime, river-channel migration had allowed reoccupation of a site west of Yuansha City around 1.9 ka BP (abandoned again by 1.6 ka BP). The remains' chronology shows that this site was affiliated to Wumi culture and Eastern Han (24-220 CE) dynasty rule. Palaeoclimatic records indicate that the migrations of the river and oasis settlers between 2.7 and 1.6 ka BP were coeval with Central Asian climate changes. Yuansha City was built just after the end of 2.8 ka BP glacier advances in western China, suggesting that release of more water during the subsequent glacier recession may have facilitated oasis development such that Iron Age European peoples could settle in the Tarim Basin. As shown from analysis of archeological remains, not only at Yuansha but also in other ancient cities in the Tarim such as Loulan and Jingjue (Niya), conditions around 1.6 ka BP were dry enough to cause oasis decline. Thus, the results reported here enhance our knowledge about environmental changes and their effects on human activities and cultural evolution in western China and will stimulate further interdisciplinary studies of landscape and oasis history in the Tarim Basin. Taklamakan, Keriya, river, Yuansha, settlement migrate, 2.8 ka BP, 14 C, OSL Citation: Zhang F, Wang T, Yimit H, et al. Hydrological changes and settlement migrations in the Keriya River delta in central Tarim Basin ca. 2.7-1.6 ka BP:

Satellite data and the published coefficients about the world's and China's ecosystem were used to analyze the effects of land-use changes on the ecosystem service in the Yanqi Basin. Both economic developments and arid, fragile ecosystems have strongly affected the land use. A sensitivity analysis determined the effect of manipulating the coefficients on the estimated values. Results indicated that (1) the total value of ecosystem services in the Yanqi Basin were 9,374.66, 10,450.52, 9,964.20, and 9,8707.77 million Yuan in 1990, 2000, 2005, and 2011, respectively. The net increase in ecosystem service values were about 496.11 million Yuan within 1990-2011; (2) The aggregated ecosystem service values of water body, wetlands, grasslands, and croplands were about 99.25 % of the total value; (3) Waste treatment and soil formation were the top two ecological functions with high service values and contributing about 61.70 % of the total service values; and (4) Ecosystem service values estimated in this study were inelastic with respect to the value coefficients; therefore, the estimation was robust in spite of uncertainties on the value coefficients. A reasonable land-use plan should be based on rigorous environmental impact analyses for maintaining stability and sustainable development of the Yanqi Basin.

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