Photosubstitution of the nitro group vs the methoxy group of triplet 4-nitroanisole by hydroxide ion in water leads to product yields of about 80% 4-methoxyphenol and 20% 4-nitrophenol. The ratio depends slightly on temperature from 3 to 73 °C. The slight temperature variation in the yield ratio is reproduced almost perfectly with a simple Arrhenius model for a mechanism involving bonding of hydroxide ion with the triplet state of 4-nitroanisole. The competing transition states have activation energies of 2.2 and 2.6 kcal/mol, respectively. Correct prediction of regioselectivity can be done for this case by quantum chemical calculation of the competing triplet transition-state energies, or those of the corresponding triplet σ-complexes. Other models for aromatic photosubstitution regioselectivity in mechanisms of the S(N)2Ar* type, such as those based on calculated electron densities, HOMO/LUMO coefficients, or energy gap sizes, are discussed and shown to be inferior to the relative activation energies model. The photoreaction in alcohol solvents, claimed by others to generate the same products as in water and to have an exceedingly large variation of the product ratio with temperature, may reflect chemical changes other than those reported.