BackgroundHand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) affects millions of children across Asia annually, leading to an increase in implemented control policies such as surveillance, isolation and social distancing in affected jurisdictions. However, limited knowledge of disease burden and severity causes difficulty in policy optimisation as the associated economic cost cannot be easily estimated. We use a data synthesis approach to provide a comprehensive picture of HFMD disease burden, estimating infection risk, symptomatic rates, the risk of complications and death, and overall disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) losses, along with associated uncertainties.MethodsComplementary data from a variety of sources were synthesised with mathematical models to obtain estimates of severity of HFMD. This includes serological and other data extracted through a systematic review of HFMD epidemiology previously published by the authors, and laboratory investigations and sentinel reports from Singapore’s surveillance system.ResultsHFMD is estimated to cause 96 900 (95% CI 40 600 to 259 000) age-weighted DALYs per annum in eight high-burden countries in East and Southeast Asia, with the majority of DALYs attributed to years of life lost. The symptomatic case hospitalisation rate of HFMD is 6% (2.8%–14.9%), of which 18.7% (6.7%–31.5%) are expected to develop complications. 5% (2.9%–7.4%) of such cases are fatal, bringing the overall case fatality ratio to be 52.3 (24.4–92.7) per 100 000 symptomatic infections. In contrast, the EV-A71 case fatality ratio is estimated to be at least 229.7 (75.4–672.1) per 100 000 symptomatic cases. Asymptomatic rate for EV-A71 is 71.4% (68.3%–74.3%) for ages 1–4, the years of greatest incidence.ConclusionDespite the high incidence rate of HFMD, total DALY due to HFMD is limited in comparison to other endemic diseases in the region, such as dengue and upper respiratory tract infection. With the majority of DALY caused by years of life lost, it is possible to mitigate most with increased EV-A71 vaccine coverage.

ObjectivesTo develop a localised instrument and Bayesian statistical method to generate size estimates—adjusted for transmission error and barrier effects—of at-risk populations in Singapore.MethodsWe conducted indepth interviews and focus group to guide the development of the survey questionnaire. The questionnaire was administered between July and August 2017 in Singapore. Using the network scale-up method (NSUM), we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the number of individuals in four hidden populations at risk of HIV. The method accounted for both transmission error and barrier effects using social acceptance measures and demographics.ResultsThe adjusted size estimate of the population of male clients of female sex workers was 72 000 (95% CI 51 000 to 100 000), of female sex workers 4200 (95% CI 1600 to 10 000), of men who have sex with men 210 000 (95% CI 140 000 to 300 000) and of intravenous drug users 11 000 (95% CI 6500 to 17 000).ConclusionsThe NSUM with adjustment for attitudes and demographics allows national-level estimates of multiple priority populations to be determined from simple surveys of the general population, even in relatively conservative societies.

BackgroundThis mixed methods study aims to describe 1) characteristics of the population treated with non-occupational post-exposure prophylaxis (nPEP), 2) predictors of loss to follow-up (LTFU) and nPEP adherence, and 3) to evaluate the nPEP prescribing practices against current management guideline.MethodsThis study was conducted at the Department of Sexually Transmitted Infections Control Clinic in Singapore using clinical data from 2010 to 2016. Explanatory sequential mixed method design was adopted. Predictors of LTFU and nPEP adherence were assessed using modified Poisson regression with robust sandwich variance. Subsequently, nine in-depth interviews with healthcare providers were conducted to gain their insights into barriers and facilitators to nPEP implementation. Transcripts were coded and themes were explored using applied thematic analysis.ResultsOf 502 nPEP cases reviewed, 46% were LTFU, 42% were adherent to nPEP and 431 prescription decisions were made in accordance with the guideline. Tourists (aRR, 2.29 [1.90–2.74]; p<0.001) and men who have sex with men/bisexual men (aRR, 1.32 [1.09–1.59]; p = 0.004) were significant predictors of LTFU. Absence of side effects (aRR, 1.14 [1.02–1.27]; p = 0.024) and nPEP treatment with TDF/FTC/ATV/r (aRR, 1.15 [1.03–1.29]; p = 0.017) were positively associated with nPEP adherence. Stigma, types of antiretroviral regimen, side effects, and patients’ perception of risk and treatment benefits derived qualitatively further reinforced corresponding quantitative findings.ConclusionTailored socio-behavioral interventions are needed to address inherent differences within heterogeneous populations requesting nPEP, stigma, and patients’ perceptions of nPEP in order to improve follow-up and its adherence.