Abstract. River discharges are decreasing in many regions of the world; however, the consequences of this on water quality and primary productivity of receiving coastal oceans are largely unclear. We analysed satellite remote-sensing data (MODIS) of the coastal ocean zone that receives outflows from the Murray River, from 2002 to 2016. This system has experienced historical flow reductions and a recent extreme hydrological 'Millennium' drought. Remotely sensed chlorophyll-a and particulate organic carbon in the coastal ocean were strongly correlated with river outflows (R 2 . 0.6) in an 8-km radial buffer zone from the Murray Mouth, and the river influence extended up to ,60 km from the Murray Mouth during high-flow periods. This distance was approximately three times greater than the freshwater plume extent during maximum flows in 2011, suggesting that new primary productivity was created. In contrast, there was no additional coastal ocean productivity above background levels from 2007 to 2010 when river outflows ceased. Hindcast calculations based on historical flows from 1962 to 2002 suggest that declining Murray River flows have greatly reduced primary productivity in adjacent coastal waters. This has potential consequences for higher trophic levels and should be considered in future management planning.

Droughts in many regions of the world are increasing in frequency and severity which, coupled with effects from anthropogenic water extraction and diversion, are reducing river discharges. Yet to date, few studies have investigated the impacts of hydrological droughts (i.e., reduced river outflows to the ocean) on seabirds. Here, we examined the consequences of the “Millennium Drought” on the local decline of an iconic Australian seabird, the little penguin (Eudyptula minor). We analysed monthly and annual penguin numbers in relation to river outflow, rainfall, the characteristics of the coastal waters (sea surface temperatures and chlorophyll-a concentrations), and local abundance of key predators and prey species. We found a negative association between monthly penguin numbers and both sea surface temperatures and river outflow. Annual penguin numbers were positively associated with southern garfish numbers (our local indicator of food availability) but negatively associated with annual chlorophyll-a concentrations. Our findings emphasizing the need for further research into the effect of hydrological droughts on seabird populations and for improved river management that account for potential downstream impacts on the coastal environment receiving freshwater from rivers.

Although the potential of river discharge to support ocean productivity and marine ecosystems is known, the specifics of this relationship are poorly understood in many regions of the world. Global estimates of river flow indicate that river discharge is decreasing due to the increasing fragmentation, extraction and regulation of rivers. This likely means that the contribution of river flow to coastal productivity and water quality is changing, potentially leading to fewer and smaller magnitude ocean fertilisation events. We developed a simple analysis method, based on Earth observation data, to investigate where coastal ocean chlorophyll-a is most strongly influenced by river discharge. The per-pixel spatiotemporal correlation technique (implemented using Python) correlates chlorophyll-a concentration (a proxy for phytoplankton biomass and indicator of primary productivity) from MODIS ocean colour data with river discharge data. The method was tested globally on 11 different rivers discharging into coastal ocean regions. Our findings suggest some of the world's largest river systems, such as the Amazon River, have zones of elevated coastal chl-a that extend hundreds to thousands of km from the river mouth. These findings suggest the influence of river discharge may have been underestimated in many coastal regions of the world. The method appears more effective for larger river systems discharging to ocean waters with less complex nutrient dynamics and weaker seasonal productivity patterns, most notably in temperate regions. Increasing our understanding of the specific areas influenced by river discharge, and the degree of influence over space and time, is an important step towards the improved river and coastal management. This method will increase the capacity of researchers to monitor how, when and where coastal waters are affected as river discharge continues to change into the future.