No abstract

Mangrove forests provide a range of ecosystem services but may be increasingly threatened by climate change in the North Atlantic due to high-intensity storms. Hurricane Irma (Category 5) hit the northern coast of Cuba in September 2017, causing widespread damage to mangroves; losses have not yet been extensively documented due to financial and logistical constraints for local scientists. Our team estimated Irma’s impacts on Cuban ecosystems in a coastal and upland study area spanning over 1.7 million ha. We developed a multi-resolution time series “vegetation anomaly” approach, where post-disturbance observations in photosynthetically active vegetation (Enhanced Vegetation Index, EVI) were normalized to the reference period (dry season mean over a historical time series). The Hurricane Disturbance Vegetation Anomaly (HDVA) was used to estimate the extent, severity, and temporal patterns of ecological changes with Sentinel-2 and MODIS data and used vicarious validation with microsatellite interpretation (Planet). HDVA values were classed to convey qualitative labels useful for local scientists: (1) Catastrophic, (2) Severe, (3) Moderate, (4) Mild, and (5) No Loss. Sentinel-2 had a limited reference period (2015–2017) compared to MODIS (2000–2017), yet the HDVA patterns were similar. Mangrove and wetlands (>265,000 ha) sustained widespread damages, with a staggering 78% showing damage, largely severe to catastrophic (0–0.81 HDVA; >207,000 ha). The damaged area is 24 times greater than impacts from Irma as documented elsewhere. Caguanes National Park (>8400 ha, excluding marine zones) experienced concentrated, severe mangrove and wetland damages (nearly 4000 ha). The phenological declines from Irma’s impacts took up to 17 months to fully actualize, a much longer period than previously suggested. In contrast, dry forests saw rapid green flushes post-hurricane. With the increase of high-intensity storm events and other threats to ecosystems, the HDVA methods outlined here can be used to assess intense to low-level damages.