The Weddell Sea polynya is a large opening in the open-ocean sea ice cover associated with intense deep convection in the ocean. A necessary condition to form and maintain a polynya is the presence of a strong subsurface heat reservoir. This study investigates the processes that control the stratification and hence the buildup of the subsurface heat reservoir in the Weddell Sea. To do so, a climate model run for 200 years under preindustrial forcing with two eddying resolutions in the ocean (0.258 CM2.5 and 0.108 CM2.6) is investigated. Over the course of the simulation, CM2.6 develops two polynyas in the Weddell Sea, while CM2.5 exhibits quasi-continuous deep convection but no polynyas, exemplifying that deep convection is not a sufficient condition for a polynya to occur. CM2.5 features a weaker subsurface heat reservoir than CM2.6 owing to weak stratification associated with episodes of gravitational instability and enhanced vertical mixing of heat, resulting in an erosion of the reservoir. In contrast, in CM2.6, the water column is more stably stratified, allowing the subsurface heat reservoir to build up. The enhanced stratification in CM2.6 arises from its refined horizontal grid spacing and resolution of topography, which allows, in particular, a better representation of the restratifying effect by transient mesoscale eddies and of the overflows of dense waters along the continental slope.

The role of Weddell Sea polynyas in establishing deep-ocean properties is explored in the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL) coupled climate model CM2G. Using statistical composite analysis of over 30 polynya events that occur in a 2000-yr-long preindustrial control run, the temperature, salinity, and water mass changes associated with the composite event are quantified. For the time period following the composite polynya cessation, termed the ''recovery,'' warming between 0.0028 and 0.0198C decade 21 occurs below 4200 m in the Southern Ocean basins. Temperature and salinity changes are strongest in the Southern Ocean and the South Atlantic near the polynya formation region. Comparison of the model results with abyssal temperature observations reveals that the 1970s Weddell Polynya recovery could account for 10% 6 8% of the recent warming in the abyssal Southern Ocean. For individual Southern Ocean basins, this percentage is as little as 6% 6 11% or as much as 34% 6 13%.

The Arctic Ocean is strongly stratified by salinity in the uppermost layers. This stratification is a key attribute of the region as it acts as an effective barrier for the vertical exchanges of Atlantic Water heat, nutrients, and CO2 between intermediate depths and the surface of the Eurasian and Amerasian basins (EB and AB). Observations show that from 1970 to 2017, the stratification in the AB has strengthened, whereas, in parts of the EB, the stratification has weakened. The strengthening in the AB is linked to freshening and deepening of the halocline. In the EB, the weakened stratification is associated with salinification and shoaling of the halocline (Atlantification). Simulations from a suite of CMIP6 models project that, under a strong greenhouse-gas forcing scenario (ssp585), the overall surface freshening and warming continue in both basins, but there is a divergence in hydrographic trends in certain regions. Within the AB, there is agreement among the models that the upper layers will become more stratified. However, within the EB, models diverge regarding future stratification. This is due to different balances between trends at the surface and trends at depth, related to Fram Strait fluxes. The divergence affects projections of the future state of Arctic sea ice, as models with the strongest Atlantification project the strongest decline in sea ice volume in the EB. From these simulations, one could conclude that Atlantificaton will not spread eastward into the AB; however, models must be improved to simulate changes in a more intricately stratified EB correctly.

and precipitation are increasing (e.g., Rawlins et al., 2010), all pointing to an acceleration of the Arctic freshwater cycle. As a result of these changes, liquid (oceanic) freshwater storage has increased over the past few decades while solid (sea ice) storage has decreased (