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A deterministic model and a probabilistic model were developed to predict low-temperature crack spacing as a function of time using thermal stress restrained specimen test results, pavement thickness and bulk density, pavement restraint conditions, and air temperature. The effect of aging on pavement properties was incorporated in the models by predicting the field aging with long-term oven aging treatment in the laboratory. The calculation of the crack spacing is based on the theory that the pavement slab cracks when the pavement temperature reaches the cracking temperature of the mixture and the slab is fully restrained. The deterministic model predicts crack spacing with time, whereas the probabilistic model predicts crack spacing and its variation with time and yields the reliability of the design with regard to a minimum acceptable crack spacing criterion defined by road authorities. The probabilistic model is recommended for use in predicting the low-temperature cracking of asphalt concrete mixtures.

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