Using the Finnish MELA model, a set of scenarios were produced and used to map the possibilities and risks surrounding the utilisation of peatlands in wood production in Finland. One of the scenarios was an estimate of allowable-cut calculated by maximising the net present value of the future revenues using a four per cent interest rate subject to non-decreasing flow of wood, saw logs and net income over a 50-year period, and net present value after the 50 year period greater or equal than in the beginning. The estimate for maximum regionally sustained removal in 1996-2005 was 68 million m 3 per year -approaching 74 million m 3 during the next decades. In this scenario, 14 per cent of all cuttings during the period 1996-2005 would be made on peatlands, which comprise ca. 31 per cent of the total area of forestry land. By the year 2025, the proportion of peatland cuttings would increase to over 20 per cent. The increase in future cutting possibilities on peatlands compensated for a temporary decrease in cuttings and growing stock on mineral soils. The allowable-cut effect was especially pronounced in northern Finland, where peatlands play an important role in wood production. In addition, the sensitivity of cutting possibilities for assumptions related to growth and price were analysed. The estimate of maximum sustainable yield as defined here seems to be fairly robust on the whole, except in northern Finland where the cutting scenarios were sensitive to the changes in the price of birch pulpwood. The proportion of peatland stands that are profitable for timber production depends on the interest rate: the higher the rate of interest the less peatland stands are thinned. The effect of cutting profile on future logging conditions and resulting costs were analysed in two forestry centres. If clear cuttings on mineral soils are to be cut first, an increase in future logging costs is inevitable.

The purpose of this study was to optimize forest management for a forest region (the total area of forest and scrub land 1.54 mill. ha) under changing climate by using the large-scale forestry scenario model MELA and sample plot data from the geo-referenced National Forest Inventory (NFI). The MELA model is based on integrated simulation and optimisation; in the simulation it utilises empirical tree-level models into which the impacts of climate change were introduced by transfer variables derived by using the physiological model FinnFor. Six scenarios with differences in climate and forest management were defined. In simulations, the accelerating tree growth caused by climate change resulted in an increase in maximum sustainable removal of trees at regional level. Changes in regionally optimized forest management were also detected during the analysis period of 30 years; the proportion of thinnings increased because the stands fulfilled the thinning requirements earlier than in the current climate. This study was the first attempt to solve endogenously maximum sustainable timber production and corresponding forest management at the regional level under different climate scenarios. When implemented in the MELA system, which is widely used in Finnish forestry, the transfer variables offer means of disseminating the results from physiological studies to planning of adjustment and mitigation measures under changing climate.

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Information on the potential wood supply is important for the wood industry. In this study, the future development of growing stock, cutting potential and wood properties corresponding to the regional scenario of North Karelian Forest Programme 2006 -2010 was analysed. The simulations were performed by employing the Finnish MELA system together with the sample plot and tree data of the 9 th Finnish National Forest Inventory (NFI9) as initial data for the simulations. Disc-based models for basic wood density, proportion of latewood and fibre length of Norway spruce and Scots pine in Sweden were calibrated and integrated into the MELA system. The wood properties at breast height of both harvested and standing trees were analysed in different strata (age, site type and cutting method) during the scenario period of 50 years (2002 -2052). The average wood properties within the same strata varied only slightly over time. However, the results for different strata differed considerably. In general, wood density, fibre length and proportion of latewood increased, on average, as a function of tree age and along with a decrease in site fertility (excl. wood density and proportion of latewood in harvested Norway spruce in the first case and fibre length in the latter case for both species). For trees less than 80 years, properties in harvested trees were equal to or slightly greater than those of standing trees. The values for clear-cuttings were greater or equal to those of thinnings (excl. wood density and proportion of latewood in Norway spruce). The study demonstrates the value of model-based analyses utilising NFI tree measurements in regions that are considered to be sources of raw material.