Analysis of Global Positioning System (GPS) data demonstrates that ongoing three-dimensional crustal deformation in Fennoscandia is dominated by glacial isostatic adjustment. Our comparison of these GPS observations with numerical predictions yields an Earth model that satisfies independent geologic constraints and bounds both the average viscosity in the upper mantle (5 x 10(20) to 1 x 10(21) pascal seconds) and the elastic thickness of the lithosphere (90 to 170 kilometers). We combined GPS-derived radial motions with Fennoscandian tide gauge records to estimate a regional sea surface rise of 2.1 +/- 0.3 mm/year. Furthermore, ongoing horizontal tectonic motions greater than approximately 1 mm/year are ruled out on the basis of the GPS-derived three-dimensional crustal velocity field.

[1] Data collected under the auspices of the BIFROST GPS project yield a geographically dense suite of estimates of present-day, three-dimensional (3-D) crustal deformation rates in Fennoscandia [Johansson et al., 2002]. A preliminary forward analysis of these estimates has indicated that models of ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in response to the final deglaciation event of the current ice age are able to provide an excellent fit to the observed 3-D velocity field. In this study we revisit our previous GIA analysis by considering a more extensive suite of forward calculations and by performing the first formal joint inversion of the BIFROST rate estimates. To establish insight into the physics of the GIA response in the region, we begin by decomposing a forward prediction into the three contributions associated with the ice, ocean, and rotational forcings. From this analysis we demonstrate that recent advances in postglacial sea level theory, in particular the inclusion of rotational effects and improvements in the treatment of the ocean load in the vicinity of an evolving continental margin, involve peak signals that are larger than the observational uncertainties in the BIFROST network. The forward analysis is completed by presenting predictions for a pair of Fennoscandian ice histories and an extensive suite of viscoelastic Earth models. The former indicates that the BIFROST data set provides a powerful discriminant of such histories. The latter yields bounds on the (assumed constant) upper and lower mantle viscosity (n UM , n LM ); specifically, we derive a 95% confidence interval of 5 Â 10 20 n UM 10 21 Pa s and 5 Â 10 21 n LM 5 Â 10 22 Pa s, with some preference for (elastic) lithospheric thickness in excess of 100 km. The main goal of the (Bayesian) inverse analysis is to estimate the radial resolving power of the BIFROST GPS data as a function of depth in the mantle. Assuming a reasonably accurate ice history, we demonstrate that this resolving power varies from $200 km near the base of the upper mantle to $700 km in the top portion of the lower mantle. We conclude that the BIFROST data are able to resolve structure on radial length scale significantly smaller than a single upper mantle layer. However, these data provide little constraint on viscosity in the bottom half of the mantle. Finally, elements of both the forward and inverse analyses indicate that radial and horizontal velocity estimates provide distinct constraints on mantle viscosity.INDEX TERMS: 1208 Geodesy and Gravity: Crustal movements-intraplate (8110); 1236 Geodesy and Gravity: Rheology of the lithosphere and mantle (8160); 8107 Tectonophysics: Continental neotectonics;

Bedrock uplift in Antarctica is dominated by a combination of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and elastic response to contemporary mass change. Here, we present spatially extensive GPS observations of Antarctic bedrock uplift, using 52% more stations than previous studies, giving enhanced coverage, and with improved precision. We observe rapid elastic uplift in the northern Antarctic Peninsula. After considering elastic rebound, the GPS data suggests that modeled or empirical GIA uplift signals are often over‐estimated, particularly the magnitudes of the signal maxima. Our observation that GIA uplift is misrepresented by modeling (weighted root‐mean‐squares of observation‐model differences: 4.9–5.0 mm/yr) suggests that, apart from a few regions where large ice mass loss is occurring, the spatial pattern of secular ice mass change derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data and GIA models may be unreliable, and that several recent secular Antarctic ice mass loss estimates are systematically biased, mainly too high.

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