Comparative analyses of survival senescence by using life tables have identified generalizations including the observation that mammals senesce faster than similar-sized birds. These generalizations have been challenged because of limitations of life-table approaches and the growing appreciation that senescence is more than an increasing probability of death. Without using life tables, we examine senescence rates in annual individual fitness using 20 individual-based data sets of terrestrial vertebrates with contrasting life histories and body size. We find that senescence is widespread in the wild and equally likely to occur in survival and reproduction. Additionally, mammals senesce faster than birds because they have a faster life history for a given body size. By allowing us to disentangle the effects of two major fitness components our methods allow an assessment of the robustness of the prevalent life-table approach. Focusing on one aspect of life history - survival or recruitment - can provide reliable information on overall senescence.

Suggestions of collapse in small herbivore cycles since the 1980s have raised concerns about the loss of essential ecosystem functions. Whether such phenomena are general and result from extrinsic environmental changes or from intrinsic process stochasticity is currently unknown. Using a large compilation of time series of vole abundances, we demonstrate consistent cycle amplitude dampening associated with a reduction in winter population growth, although regulatory processes responsible for cyclicity have not been lost. The underlying syndrome of change throughout Europe and grass-eating vole species suggests a common climatic driver. Increasing intervals of low-amplitude small herbivore population fluctuations are expected in the future, and these may have cascading impacts on trophic webs across ecosystems.

Individual fitness is a central evolutionary concept, but the question of how it should be defined in empirical studies of natural selection remains contentious. Using founding cohorts from long-term population studies of two species of individually marked birds (collared flycatcher Ficedula albicollis and Ural owl Strix uralensis), we compared a rate-sensitive (lambdaind) and a rate-insensitive (lifetime reproductive success [LRS]) estimate of individual fitness with an estimate of long-term genetic fitness. The latter was calculated as the number of gene copies present in the population after more than two generations, as estimated by tracing genetic lineages and accounting for the fact that populations were not completely closed. When counting fledglings, rate-insensitive estimates of individual fitness correlated better than rate-sensitive estimates with estimated long-term genetic contribution. When counting recruits, both classes of estimates performed equally well. The results support the contention that simple, rate-insensitive measures of fitness, such as LRS, provide a valid and good estimate of fitness in evolutionary studies of natural populations.

Summary1. Voles in northern Europe have been shown to exhibit cyclic population dynamics, with a latitudinal gradient in cycle length, amplitude and interspecific synchrony. 2. Previous studies have been based on a relatively sparse network of sampling sites. In the absence of spatially comprehensive long-term records of vole dynamics, we analysed a proxy of vole density, bird-ringing data on vole-eating avian predators, Tengmalm's owl ( Aegolius funereus L.), the Ural owl ( Strix uralensis Pall.), the long-eared owl ( Asio otus L.) and the rough-legged buzzard ( Buteo lagopus Pontoppidan) to study spatial population dynamics of voles. 3. We demonstrate that the breeding success of the avian predators is highly dependent on the abundance of voles, which is also reflected in the numbers of nestlings ringed in a particular area in each year. 4. Our results show the expected increase in cycle length from south to north in Finland, but also from west to east, and in contrast to previous studies, increasing irregularity of the cyclic dynamics towards the north. 5. Fluctuations of vole populations have been synchronous over large distances, up to several hundred kilometres. Such large-scale synchrony is more likely to be caused by movements of vole-eating predators and/or by climatic perturbations than by dispersal of voles. 6. We could not conclusively verify the recent suggestion that vole population dynamics have become less regular across Finland, although certain long-term changes are apparent.

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