Summary 1.Climate change has been inducing range shifts for many species as they follow their suitable climate space and further shifts are projected. Whether species will be able to colonize regions where climate conditions become suitable, so-called 'new climate space', depends on species traits and habitat fragmentation. 2. By combining bioclimate envelope models with dispersal models, we identified areas where the spatial cohesion of the ecosystem pattern is expected to be insufficient to allow colonization of new climate space. 3. For each of three ecosystem types, three species were selected that showed a shift in suitable climate space and differed in habitat fragmentation sensitivity. 4. For the 2020 and 2050 time slices, the amount of climatically suitable habitat in northwest Europe diminished for all studied species. Additionally, significant portions of new suitable habitat could not be colonized because of isolation. Together, this will result in a decline in the amount of suitable habitat protected in Natura 2000 sites. 5. We develop several adaptation strategies to combat this problem: (i) link isolated habitat that is within a new suitable climate zone to the nearest climate-proof network; (ii) increase colonizing capacity in the overlap zone, the part of a network that remains suitable in successive time frames; (iii) optimize sustainable networks in climate refugia, the part of a species' range where the climate remains stable. 6. Synthesis and applications . Following the method described in this study, we can identify those sites across Europe where ecosystem patterns are not cohesive enough to accommodate species' responses to climate change. The best locations for climate corridors where improving connectivity is most urgent and potential gain is highest can then be pinpointed.

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In the present study we present a population model (Metapopulation model for Assessing Spatial and Temporal Effects of Pesticides [MASTEP]) describing the effects on and recovery of the waterlouse Asellus aquaticus after exposure to a fast‐acting, nonpersistent insecticide as a result of spray drift in pond, ditch, and stream scenarios. The model used the spatial and temporal distribution of the exposure in different treatment conditions as an input parameter. A dose–response relation derived from a hypothetical mesocosm study was used to link the exposure with the effects. The modeled landscape was represented as a lattice of 1‐ by 1‐m cells. The model included processes of mortality of A. aquaticus, life history, random walk between cells, density dependence of population regulation, and, in the case of the stream scenario, medium‐distance drift of A. aquaticus due to flow. All parameter estimates were based on expert judgment and the results of a thorough review of published information on the ecology of A. aquaticus. In the treated part of the water body, the ditch scenario proved to be the worst‐case situation, due to the absence of drift of A. aquaticus. Effects in the pond scenario were smaller because the pond was exposed from one side, allowing migration from the other, less contaminated side. The results of the stream scenario showed the importance of including drift for the population recovery in the 100‐m stretch of the stream that was treated. It should be noted, however, that the inclusion of drift had a negligible impact on numbers in the stream as a whole (600 m).

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