A recently completed research program (TREES) employing the global imaging capabilities of Earth-observing satellites provides updated information on the status of the world's humid tropical forest cover. Between 1990 and 1997, 5.8 +/- 1.4 million hectares of humid tropical forest were lost each year, with a further 2.3 +/- 0.7 million hectares of forest visibly degraded. These figures indicate that the global net rate of change in forest cover for the humid tropics is 23% lower than the generally accepted rate. This result affects the calculation of carbon fluxes in the global budget and means that the terrestrial sink is smaller than previously inferred.

We estimate changes in forest cover (deforestation and forest regrowth) in the tropics for the two last decades (1990–2000 and 2000–2010) based on a sample of 4000 units of 10 ×10 km size. Forest cover is interpreted from satellite imagery at 30 × 30 m resolution. Forest cover changes are then combined with pan-tropical biomass maps to estimate carbon losses. We show that there was a gross loss of tropical forests of 8.0 million ha yr−1 in the 1990s and 7.6 million ha yr−1 in the 2000s (0.49% annual rate), with no statistically significant difference. Humid forests account for 64% of the total forest cover in 2010 and 54% of the net forest loss during second study decade. Losses of forest cover and Other Wooded Land (OWL) cover result in estimates of carbon losses which are similar for 1990s and 2000s at 887 MtC yr−1 (range: 646–1238) and 880 MtC yr−1 (range: 602–1237) respectively, with humid regions contributing two-thirds. The estimates of forest area changes have small statistical standard errors due to large sample size. We also reduce uncertainties of previous estimates of carbon losses and removals. Our estimates of forest area change are significantly lower as compared to national survey data. We reconcile recent low estimates of carbon emissions from tropical deforestation for early 2000s and show that carbon loss rates did not change between the two last decades. Carbon losses from deforestation represent circa 10% of Carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production during the last decade (2000–2010). Our estimates of annual removals of carbon from forest regrowth at 115 MtC yr−1 (range: 61–168) and 97 MtC yr−1 (53–141) for the 1990s and 2000s respectively are five to fifteen times lower than earlier published estimates.

[1] Recent figures on net forest cover change rates of the world's tropical forest cover are used for the calculation of carbon fluxes in the global budget. By applying our deforestation findings in the humid tropics, complemented by published deforestation figures in the dry tropics, to refereed data on biomass, we produced new estimates of net carbon emissions. These estimates are supported by recent, independent estimations of net carbon emissions globally, over the Brazilian Amazon, and by observations of atmospheric CO 2 emissions over Southeast Asia. Our best estimate for global net emissions from land-use change in the tropics is at 1.1 ± 0.3 Gt C yr À1 . This estimate includes emissions from conversion of forests (representing 71% of budget) and loss of soil carbon after deforestation (20%), emissions from forest degradation (4.4%), emissions from the 1997-1998 Indonesian exceptional fires (8.3%), and sinks from regrowths (À3.3%).

Despite the importance of the world's humid tropical forests, our knowledge concerning their rates of change remains limited. Two recent programmes (FAO 2000 Forest Resources Assessment and TREES II), exploiting the global imaging capabilities of Earth observing satellites, have recently been completed to provide information on the dynamics of tropical forest cover. The results from these independent studies show a high degree of conformity and provide a good understanding of trends at the pan-tropical level. In 1990 there were some 1150 million ha of tropical rain forest with the area of the humid tropics deforested annually estimated at 5.8 million ha (approximately twice the size of Belgium). A further 2.3 million ha of humid forest is apparently degraded annually through fragmentation, logging and/or fires. In the sub-humid and dry tropics, annual deforestation of tropical moist deciduous and tropical dry forests comes to 2.2 and 0.7 million ha, respectively. Southeast Asia is the region where forests are under the highest pressure with an annual change rate of -0.8 to -0.9%. The annual area deforested in Latin America is large, but the relative rate (-0.4 to -0.5%) is lower, owing to the vast area covered by the remaining Amazonian forests. The humid forests of Africa are being converted at a similar rate to those of Latin America (-0.4 to -0.5% per year). During this period, secondary forests have also been established, through re-growth on abandoned land and forest plantations, but with different ecological, biophysical and economic characteristics compared with primary forests. These trends are significant in all regions, but the extent of new forest cover has proven difficult to establish. These results, as well as the lack of more detailed knowledge, clearly demonstrate the need to improve sound scientific evidence to support policy. The two projects provide useful guidance for future monitoring efforts in the context of multilateral environmental agreements and of international aid, trade and development partnerships. Methodologically, the use of high-resolution remote sensing in representative samples has been shown to be cost-effective. Close collaboration between tropical institutions and inter-governmental organizations proved to be a fruitful arrangement in the different projects. To properly assist decision-making, monitoring and assessments should primarily be addressed at the national level, which also corresponds to the ratification level of the multilateral environmental agreements. The Forest Resources Assessment 2000 deforestation statistics from countries are consistent with the satellite-based estimates in Asia and America, but are significantly different in Africa, highlighting the particular need for long-term capacity-building activities in this continent.

The study assesses the extent and trends of forest cover in Southeast Asia for the period 1990–2000–2010 and provides an overview on the main drivers of forest cover change. A systematic sample of 418 sites (10 km × 10 km size) located at the one-degree geographical confluence points and covered with satellite imagery of 30 m resolution is used for the assessment. Techniques of image segmentation and automated classification are combined with visual satellite image interpretation and quality control, involving forestry experts from Southeast Asian countries. The accuracy of our results is assessed through an independent consistency assessment, performed from a subsample of 1572 mapping units and resulting in an overall agreement of > 85% for the general differentiation of forest cover vs. non-forest cover. The total forest cover of Southeast Asia is estimated at 268 Mha in 1990, dropping to 236 Mha in 2010, with annual change rates of 1.75 Mha (~0.67% and 1.45 Mha (~0.59%) for the periods 1990–2000 and 2000–2010, respectively. The vast majority of forest cover loss (~2/3 for 2000–2010) occurred in insular Southeast Asia. Combining the change patterns visible from satellite imagery with the output of an expert consultation on the main drivers of forest change highlights the high pressure on the region's remaining forests. The conversion of forest cover to cash crop plantations (e.g. oil palm) is ranked as the dominant driver of forest change in Southeast Asia, followed by selective logging and the establishment of tree plantations