Background Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies have found thalamic abnormalities in major depressive disorder (MDD). Although there are significant differences in the structure and function of the thalamus between MDD patients and healthy controls (HCs) at the group level, it is not clear whether the structural and functional features of the thalamus are suitable for use as diagnostic prediction aids at the individual level. Here, we were to test the predictive value of gray matter density (GMD), gray matter volume (GMV), amplitude of low-frequency fluctuations (ALFF), and fractional amplitude of low-frequency fluctuations (fALFF) in the thalamus using multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA). Methods Seventy-four MDD patients and 44 HC subjects were recruited. The Gaussian process classifier (GPC) was trained to separate MDD patients from HCs, Gaussian process regression (GPR) was trained to predict depression scores, and Multiple Kernel Learning (MKL) was applied to explore the contribution of each subregion of the thalamus. Results The primary findings were as follows: [1] The balanced accuracy of the GPC trained with thalamic GMD was 96.59% (P < 0.001). The accuracy of the GPC trained with thalamic GMV was 93.18% (P < 0.001). The correlation between Hamilton Depression Scale (HAMD) score targets and predictions in the GPR trained with GMD was 0.90 (P < 0.001, r2 = 0.82), and in the GPR trained with GMV, the correlation between HAMD score targets and predictions was 0.89 (P < 0.001, r2 = 0.79). [2] The models trained with ALFF and fALFF in the thalamus failed to discriminate MDD patients from HC participants. [3] The MKL model showed that the left lateral prefrontal thalamus, the right caudal temporal thalamus, and the right sensory thalamus contribute more to the diagnostic classification. Conclusions The results suggested that GMD and GMV, but not functional indicators of the thalamus, have good potential for the individualized diagnosis of MDD. Furthermore, the thalamus shows the heterogeneity in the structural features of thalamic subregions for predicting MDD. To our knowledge, this is the first study to focus on the thalamus for the prediction of MDD using machine learning methods at the individual level.

The low rates of treatment response still exist in the pharmacological therapy of major depressive disorder (MDD). Exploring an optimal neurological predictor of symptom improvement caused by pharmacotherapy is urgently needed for improving response to treatment. The amygdala is closely related to the pathological mechanism of MDD and is expected to be a predictor of the treatment. However, previous studies ignored the heterogeneousness and lateralization of amygdala. Therefore, this study mainly aimed to explore whether the right amygdala subregion function at baseline can predict symptom improvement after 12-week pharmacotherapy in MDD patients. We performed granger causality analysis (GCA) to identify abnormal effective connectivity (EC) of right amygdala subregions in MDD and compared the EC strength before and after 12-week pharmacological therapy. The results show that the abnormal EC mainly concentrated on the frontolimbic circuitry and default mode network (DMN). With relief of the clinical symptom, these abnormal ECs also change toward normalization. In addition, the EC strength of right amygdala subregions at baseline showed significant predictive ability for symptom improvement using a regularized least-squares regression predict model. These findings indicated that the EC of right amygdala subregions may be functionally related in symptom improvement of MDD. It may aid us to understand the neurological mechanism of pharmacotherapy and can be used as a promising predictor for symptom improvement in MDD.