Protracted droughts lasting years to decades constitute severe threats to human welfare across the Indian subcontinent. Such events are, however, rare during the instrumental period ( ca . since 1871 CE). In contrast, the historic documentary evidence indicates the repeated occurrences of protracted droughts in the region during the preinstrumental period implying that either the instrumental observations underestimate the full spectrum of monsoon variability or the historic accounts overestimate the severity and duration of the past droughts. Here we present a temporally precise speleothem-based oxygen isotope reconstruction of the Indian summer monsoon precipitation variability from Mawmluh cave located in northeast India. Our data reveal that protracted droughts, embedded within multidecadal intervals of reduced monsoon rainfall, frequently occurred over the past millennium. These extreme events are in striking temporal synchrony with the historically documented droughts, famines, mass mortality events, and geopolitical changes in the Indian subcontinent. Our findings necessitate reconsideration of the region’s current water resources, sustainability, and mitigation policies that discount the possibility of protracted droughts in the future.
The 8.2 ka event has been extensively studied, whereas its structure is ambiguous in North China. Here we present a high‐resolution (∼1 year) δ18O record from annual laminated speleothem from Beijing to characterize the detailed variability across this event in North China. Our record indicates a dry 8.2 ka event spanning 8.254–8.107 ka BP with a two‐stage structure superimposed by three prominent high δ18O excursions. The identical structure of speleothem δ18O records between North and central China during the event suggests a common forcing/response in East China, whereas the progressively increased offset between their average values may reflect changes in moisture source or rainout effect. A close comparison with the Greenland ice core records suggests a strong linear response of the Asian summer monsoon to the North Atlantic climate changes across the early and middle stages of the event, but a different mechanism in the termination processes.
The 8.2 ka event has been extensively studied, whereas its structure is ambiguous in North China. Here we present a highresolution (˜1 year) δ18O record of annual laminated speleothem from Beijing to characterize the detailed variability across this event in North China. Our record indicates a dry 8.2 ka event spanning 8.254-8.107 ka BP with a two-stage structure superimposed by three prominent positive excursions. The identical structure of speleothem δ18O records between North and central China during the event suggests a common forcing/response in East China, whereas the progressively increased offset between their average values may reflect changes in moisture source or rainout effect. A close comparison with the Greenland ice core records suggest a strong linear response of the Asian summer monsoon to the North Atlantic climate changes across the early and middle stages of the event, but a different mechanism in the termination process.
The Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) is located in northern China, a region climatically dominated by the East Asian monsoon. Speleothem records from this region are crucial to fully understand the variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and reconcile the disparity seen between loess records and speleothem δ18O records for the EASM. Here, we present an absolutely dated stalagmite isotope record spanning most of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 to MIS 3 from Xiaotian Cave, southeast CLP. The Xiaotian speleothem δ18O record is dominated by precessional variations and punctuated by notable millennial‐scale oscillations; in particular, the δ18O values in MIS 5e, 5c and 5a were in the same range, consistent with other speleothem δ18O records from the EASM region within quoted errors, verifying the difference between speleothem δ18O and loess records (e.g. magnetic susceptibility) and the proposition that those two archives may record different aspects of the EASM changes. The similar values in MIS 5e, 5c and 5a observed from the speleothem δ18O records in EASM regions, incompatible with the relatively higher North Hemisphere Summer Insolation (NHSI) during MIS 5e, were probably caused by an equivalent or even increased contribution of 18O‐enriched moisture from the South China Sea and North Pacific, implying that an El Niño‐like state existed during MIS 5e. The Xiaotian δ18O values increased abruptly at ~121.7 thousand years (kyr) before the present (bp, present refers to ad 1950), consistent with the trend seen in previously reported Chinese speleothem δ18O records, indicating an abrupt regime shift in atmospheric circulations or hydroclimate conditions in the Asian monsoon systems. It cannot be definitely ruled out that an increase in sea ice extent in the northern North Atlantic, responding to a decrease of NHSI, reached a threshold to have led to abrupt changes in the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) through rapid shifts in the position of circulation of the westerlies and/or in the position of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Here, we hypothesized that sea surface cooling in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean caused by the decreased summer insolation reached a threshold that eventually resulted in an abrupt shift to more positive precipitation δ18O, either through weakened convection over the tropical ocean, or through abrupt shifts in moisture transport and cycling of tropical moisture sources for the ASM. The Xiaotian speleothem δ18O record also shows centennial‐scale variability with amplitude up to 3‰ within MIS 5e. These changes are similar to variations recorded by the speleothem δ18O record from Tianmen Cave on the south‐central Tibetan Plateau and Shangxiaofeng Cave in Shandong Province, northern China, suggesting a heightened sensitivity of precipitation δ18O to climate changes at the marginal zone of the ASM even during the warm and humid MIS 5e interglacial. Climatic oscillations during MIS 5e appear to be comparable to those typical of the Holocene, implying rather unstable climate cond...
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