<abstract> <p>Stroke is a major chronic non-communicable disease with high incidence, high mortality, and high recurrence. To comprehensively digest its risk factors and take some relevant measures to lower its prevalence is of great significance. This study aimed to employ Bayesian Network (BN) model with Max-Min Hill-Climbing (MMHC) algorithm to explore the risk factors for stroke. From April 2019 to November 2019, Shanxi Provincial People's Hospital conducted opportunistic screening for stroke in ten rural areas in Shanxi Province. First, we employed propensity score matching (PSM) for class balancing for stroke. Afterwards, we used Chi-square testing and Logistic regression model to conduct a preliminary analysis of risk factors for stroke. Statistically significant variables were incorporated into BN model construction. BN structure learning was achieved using MMHC algorithm, and its parameter learning was achieved with Maximum Likelihood Estimation. After PSM, 748 non-stroke cases and 748 stroke cases were included in this study. BN was built with 10 nodes and 12 directed edges. The results suggested that age, fasting plasma glucose, systolic blood pressure, and family history of stroke constitute direct risk factors for stroke, whereas sex, educational levels, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, diastolic blood pressure, and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio represent indirect risk factors for stroke. BN model with MMHC algorithm not only allows for a complicated network relationship between risk factors and stroke, but also could achieve stroke risk prediction through Bayesian reasoning, outshining traditional Logistic regression model. This study suggests that BN model boasts great prospects in risk factor detection for stroke.</p> </abstract>

ObjectivesMultimorbidity (MMD) is a medical condition that is linked with high prevalence and closely related to many adverse health outcomes and expensive medical costs. The present study aimed to construct Bayesian networks (BNs) with Max-Min Hill-Climbing algorithm (MMHC) algorithm to explore the network relationship between MMD and its related factors. We also aimed to compare the performance of BNs with traditional multivariate logistic regression model.MethodsThe data was downloaded from the Online Open Database of CHARLS 2018, a population-based longitudinal survey. In this study, we included 10 variables from data on demographic background, health status and functioning, and lifestyle. Missing value imputation was first performed using Random Forest. Afterward, the variables were included into logistic regression model construction and BNs model construction. The structural learning of BNs was achieved using MMHC algorithm and the parameter learning was conducted using maximum likelihood estimation.ResultsAmong 19,752 individuals (9,313 men and 10,439 women) aged 64.73 ± 10.32 years, there are 9,129 ones without MMD (46.2%) and 10,623 ones with MMD (53.8%). Logistic regression model suggests that physical activity, sex, age, sleep duration, nap, smoking, and alcohol consumption are associated with MMD (P &lt; 0.05). BNs, by establishing a complicated network relationship, reveals that age, sleep duration, and physical activity have a direct connection with MMD. It also shows that education levels are indirectly connected to MMD through sleep duration and residence is indirectly linked to MMD through sleep duration.ConclusionBNs could graphically reveal the complex network relationship between MMD and its related factors, outperforming traditional logistic regression model. Besides, BNs allows for risk reasoning for MMD through Bayesian reasoning, which is more consistent with clinical practice and thus holds some application prospects.

<abstract> <p>While Bayesian networks (BNs) offer a promising approach to discussing factors related to many diseases, little attention has been poured into chronic kidney disease with mental illness (KDMI) using BNs. This study aimed to explore the complex network relationships between KDMI and its related factors and to apply Bayesian reasoning for KDMI, providing a scientific reference for its prevention and treatment. Data was downloaded from the online open database of CHARLS 2018, a population-based longitudinal survey. Missing values were first imputed using Random Forest, followed by propensity score matching (PSM) for class balancing regarding KDMI. Elastic Net was then employed for variable selection from 18 variables. Afterwards, the remaining variables were included in BNs model construction. Structural learning of BNs was achieved using tabu algorithm and the parameter learning was conducted using maximum likelihood estimation. After PSM, 427 non-KDMI cases and 427 KDMI cases were included in this study. Elastic Net identified 11 variables significantly associated with KDMI. The BNs model comprised 12 nodes and 24 directed edges. The results suggested that diabetes, physical activity, education levels, sleep duration, social activity, self-report on health and asset were directly related factors for KDMI, whereas sex, age, residence and Internet access represented indirect factors for KDMI. BN model not only allows for the exploration of complex network relationships between related factors and KDMI, but also could enable KDMI risk prediction through Bayesian reasoning. This study suggests that BNs model holds great prospects in risk factor detection for KDMI.</p> </abstract>