Leafy green vegetables, including lettuce, are recognized as potential vehicles for foodborne pathogens such as Escherichia coli O157:H7. Fresh-cut lettuce is potentially at high risk of causing foodborne illnesses, as it is generally consumed without cooking. Quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRAs) are gaining more attention as an effective tool to assess and control potential risks associated with foodborne pathogens. This study developed a QMRA model for E. coli O157:H7 in fresh-cut lettuce and evaluated the effects of different potential intervention strategies on the reduction of public health risks. The fresh-cut lettuce production and supply chain was modeled from field production, with both irrigation water and soil as initial contamination sources, to consumption at home. The baseline model (with no interventions) predicted a mean probability of 1 illness per 10 million servings and a mean of 2,160 illness cases per year in the United States. All intervention strategies evaluated (chlorine, ultrasound and organic acid, irradiation, bacteriophage, and consumer washing) significantly reduced the estimated mean number of illness cases when compared with the baseline model prediction (from 11.4- to 17.9-fold reduction). Sensitivity analyses indicated that retail and home storage temperature were the most important factors affecting the predicted number of illness cases. The developed QMRA model provided a framework for estimating risk associated with consumption of E. coli O157:H7-contaminated fresh-cut lettuce and can guide the evaluation and development of intervention strategies aimed at reducing such risk.

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The majority of foodborne outbreaks in the United States associated with the consumption of leafy greens contaminated with Escherichia coli O157:H7 have been reported during the period of July to November. A dynamic system model consisting of subsystems and inputs to the system (soil, irrigation, cattle, wild pig, and rainfall) simulating a hypothetical farm was developed. The model assumed two crops of lettuce in a year and simulated planting, irrigation, harvesting, ground preparation for the new crop, contamination of soil and plants, and survival of E. coli O157:H7. As predicted by the baseline model for crops harvested in different months from conventional fields, an estimated 13 out of 257 (5.05%) first crops harvested in July would have at least one plant with at least 1 CFU of E. coli O157:H7. Predictions indicate that no first crops would be contaminated with at least 1 CFU of E. coli O157:H7 for other months (April to June). The maximum E. coli O157:H7 concentration in a plant was higher in the second crop (27.10 CFU) than in the first crop (9.82 CFU). For the second crop, the probabilities of having at least one plant with at least 1 CFU of E. coli O157:H7 in a crop were predicted as 15/228 (6.6%), 5/333 (1.5%), 14/324 (4.3%), and 6/115 (5.2%) in August, September, October, and November, respectively. For organic fields, the probabilities of having at least one plant with Ն1 CFU of E. coli O157:H7 in a crop (3.45%) were predicted to be higher than those for the conventional fields (2.15%).IMPORTANCE This study is the first attempt toward developing a mathematical system model to understand the pathway of E. coli O157:H7 in the production of leafy greens. Results of the presented system model indicate that the seasonality of outbreaks of E. coli O157:H7-associated contamination of leafy greens was in good agreement with the prevalence of this pathogen in cattle and wild pig feces in a major leafy greens-producing region in California. On the basis of comparisons among the results of different scenarios, it can be recommended that the concentration of E. coli O157:H7 in leafy greens can be reduced considerably if contamination of soil with wild pig and cattle feces is mitigated.KEYWORDS leafy greens, Escherichia coli O157:H7, outbreaks, system model, animal feces T he "Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2010" recommends that adults and children eat a variety of fruits and vegetables in order to lower the risk of chronic diseases and to achieve and maintain a healthy weight (1, 2). While leafy vegetables are an important part of a healthy and nutritious diet, they are usually consumed raw; thus, any leafy vegetables with contaminated pathogens have the potential to cause food-

This study aimed at developing a predictive model that captures the influences of a variety of agricultural and environmental variables and is able to predict the concentrations of enteric bacteria in soil amended with untreated Biological Soil Amendments of Animal Origin (BSAAO) under dynamic conditions. We developed and validated a Random Forest model using data from a longitudinal field study conducted in mid-Atlantic United States investigating the survival of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and generic E. coli in soils amended with untreated dairy manure, horse manure, or poultry litter. Amendment type, days of rain since the previous sampling day, and soil moisture content were identified as the most influential agricultural and environmental variables impacting concentrations of viable E. coli O157:H7 and generic E. coli recovered from amended soils. Our model results also indicated that E. coli O157:H7 and generic E. coli declined at similar rates in amended soils under dynamic field conditions. The Random Forest model accurately predicted changes in viable E. coli concentrations over time under different agricultural and environmental conditions.Our model also accurately characterized the variability of E. coli concentration in amended soil over time by providing upper and lower prediction bound estimates. Cross-validation results indicated that our model can be potentially generalized to other geographic regions and incorporated into a risk assessment for evaluating the risks associated with application of untreated BSAAO. Our model can be validated for other regions and predictive performance also can be enhanced when datasets from additional geographic regions become available.