Approaches to reliably predict the developmental potential of embryos and select suitable embryos for blastocyst culture are needed. The development of time-lapse monitoring (TLM) and artificial intelligence (AI) may help solve this problem. Here, we report deep learning models that can accurately predict blastocyst formation and usable blastocysts using TLM videos of the embryo’s first three days. The DenseNet201 network, focal loss, long short-term memory (LSTM) network and gradient boosting classifier were mainly employed, and video preparation algorithms, spatial stream and temporal stream models were developed into ensemble prediction models called STEM and STEM+. STEM exhibited 78.2% accuracy and 0.82 AUC in predicting blastocyst formation, and STEM+ achieved 71.9% accuracy and 0.79 AUC in predicting usable blastocysts. We believe the models are beneficial for blastocyst formation prediction and embryo selection in clinical practice, and our modeling methods will provide valuable information for analyzing medical videos with continuous appearance variation.

In this paper, a short-term wind speed prediction model, called CEEMDAN-SE-Improved PIO-GRNN, is proposed to optimize the accuracy of the short-term wind speed forecast. This model is established on account of the optimized General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) method optimized by three algorithms, which are Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN), Sample Entropy (SE), and Pigeon Inspired Optimization (PIO), separately. Firstly, decomposing the original wind speed sequences into several subsequences with different complexity by CEEMDAN. Then, the complexity of each subsequence is judged by SE and the similar subsequences are combined into a new sequence to reduce the scale of calculation. Afterwards, the GRNN model optimized by improved PIO is used to predict each new sequence. Finally, the predicted results are superposed as the eventual predicted value. Implementing the prediction for the wind speed data of a wind field in north China within 30 days by applying the different prediction models, namely, GRNN, CEEMDAN-GRNN, Improved PIO-GRNN, and CEEMDAN-SE-Improved PIO-GRNN which are proposed in this paper. Comparing the prediction curves of different models with the fitting curve of the actual wind speed shows that the optimal fitting effect and minimum error value are included in CEEMDAN-SE-Improved PIO-GRNN model. Specifically, the values of mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and weighted mean absolute percentage error (WMAPE) separately decrease by 0.6222, 0.3334, and 8.5766%, which compare with the single prediction model GRNN. Meanwhile, diebold-mariano (DM) test shows that the prediction ability of the two models is significantly different. The above statements indicate the proposed model does great advance in the precision of short-term wind speed prediction.

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