Using a novel approach of decomposing total flow into climatic and anomalous flows, we have developed a generalized beta-advection model to improve unusual typhoon track prediction within 2-3 days. Typhoon Megi (2010) that experienced an unusual path is first used to introduce this model. Differing from the conventional beta-advection model (BAM) in (i) decomposing the total flow into the climatic and anomalous flows and considering their interaction and (ii) taking the layer of minimum divergence anomaly and maximum vorticity anomaly instead of any average layers done by, for example, the shallow BAM, the medium BAM, and the deep BAM, this model is a combination of the climatic-flow BAM and the anomalous-flow BAM. In this paper, 19 cases of sudden right-turning typhoon and 10 cases of straight-moving typhoon in the South China Sea are studied to examine this model's capability. Results show that 15 right-turning and 10 straight-moving cases were successfully predicted by this combination model.

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Global atmospheric variables can be physically decomposed into four components: (1) the zonal time averaged climate symmetric component, (2) the time averaged climate asymmetric, (3) the zonal-mean transient symmetric anomaly, and (4) the transient asymmetric anomaly. This study analyzes the relationships between the intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of planetary scale decomposed zonal and meridional winds in the tropopause, and oscillations such as those from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). The tropical inter-annual zonal mean wind anomalies in the tropopause are linked with the ENSO cycle and can propagate into the subtropics, mid-latitudes, and polar front regions via abnormal meridional vertical cells. Similarly, tropical intra-seasonal (40-60-d) zonal wind anomalies can reach the subtropics and mid-latitudes. The polar intra-seasonal zonal wind anomalies in the tropopause can propagate toward high-latitude areas. Thus, the AO and the AAO are the result of the interaction and propagation of these planetary scale zonal wind anomalies.

Relationships on interannual and interdecadal timescales among global mean air temperature, CO 2 concentrations and fossil-fuel carbon emissions in four major developed countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) were analyzed. On an interannual timescale, the United States fossil-fuel carbon emissions tend to increase during cold winters and decrease during warm winters, which is opposite to the situation in summer. On an interdecadal timescale, cold (warm) periods both in the United States and globally agree with high (low) periods of fossil-fuel carbon emissions, with the temperature variability leading by 5-7 years. The leading correlation on the interdecadal timescale and the asymmetry in seasonal correlation on the interannual timescale indicate that temperature variability is a possible cause of changes in fossil-fuel carbon emissions.global mean temperature, United States temperature, fossil-fuel carbon emissions, interannual, interdecadal, possible cause Citation:Qian W H, Lu B, Liang H Y. Changes in fossil-fuel carbon emissions in response to interannual and interdecadal temperature variability.