Context Climate change can directly affect habitats within ecological networks, but may also have indirect effects on network quality by inducing land use change. The relative impact of indirect effects of climate change on the quality of ecological networks currently remains largely unknown. Objectives The objective of this study was to determine the relative impact of direct and indirect effects of climate change on a network of breeding habitat of four meadow bird species (Black-tailed godwit, Common redshank, Eurasian oystercatcher and Northern lapwing) in the Netherlands. Methods Habitat models were developed that link meadow bird breeding densities to three habitat characteristics that are sensitive to environmental change (landscape openness, land use and groundwater level). These models were used to assess the impact of scenarios of landscape change with and without climate change on meadow bird breeding habitat quality for a case study area in the peat meadow district of the Netherlands. Results All scenarios led to significantly reduced habitat quality for all species, mainly as a result of conversion of grassland to bioenergy crops, which reduces landscape openness. Direct effects of climate change on habitat quality were largely absent, indicating that especially human adaptation to climate change rather than direct effects of climate change was decisive for the degradation of ecological network quality for breeding meadow birds. ConclusionsWe conclude that scenario studies exploring impacts of climate change on ecological networks should incorporate both land use change resulting from human responses to climate change and direct effects of climate change on landscapes.

To achieve a more sustainable management of the subsiding Dutch peatlands, adaptations such as progressively higher surface water levels, pressurized field drains and a transition from dairy farming to paludiculture are considered. However, a clear understanding of implementation pathways for adaptive management strategies is lacking. Therefore, we used the RE:PEAT tool to elucidate the short-term and long-term impacts during 2025-2100 of two adaptive management strategies in Polder Zegveld and how to fairly distribute the costs and benefits of these strategies among the stakeholder groups. The strategies resulted in marked differences in soil subsidence and temporal trends in societal costs and benefits that affected stakeholders unequally. The adaptations were shown to reduce soil subsidence and enhance the sustainability of peatland management. We explored several options for a collective implementation of the adaptative management strategies. In addition, we discuss several ideas to further capitalize on the potential of the RE:PEAT tool to support peatland management. Currently, we are developing additional features that enable high spatio-temporal resolution simulations of the integrated dynamics of the surface water system, the shallow groundwater system, rainfall-runoff processes and solute transport. In combination with the PCDitch model, this will also enable detailed ecological assessments. This will pave the way for implementation pathways for adaptive management strategies that will contribute to a more sustainable peatland management.

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