Droughts have devastating effects on agricultural productivity and livelihoods, which triggers a quest for adaptation strategies such as the development and deployment of drought tolerant maize varieties (DTMVs). This study examines the scalability of DTMVs in Kenya using household survey data from eight counties. Results show that the 2018 DTMV adoption rate of 26% could be doubled to 52% as farmer knowledge constraints are alleviated, could potentially be further increased to 56% if seed access constraints are addressed, and even rise to 60% if seed affordability constraints are lifted. There is heterogeneity in scalability across counties attributable to differences in levels of scaling efforts. The use of electronic media appears to be a key success factor to create awareness about DTMVs but could exclude more marginalized households and communities, which highlights the need for multipronged awareness strategies. Scalability calls for public-private partnerships to foster a sustained supply of seed to the farming communities at competitive prices.

Maize is the staple food for most Tanzanians and accounts for over 45% and 75% of the total cultivated land and cereal production, respectively. However, its productivity remains low, averaging about 1.4 MT/ha (FAO, 2014). The low yield performance of maize is due to the limited use of improved technologies (Takahashi et al., 2020). Moreover, the situation is exacerbated by the occurrence of abiotic and biotic stresses, such as drought and diseases, respectively, which also contribute

In sub-Saharan Africa, public sector breeding programs depend on local seed companies to deliver new maize varieties to farmers. Such varieties are needed to adapt cropping systems to climate change. While dozens of small and medium seed companies have emerged in the last two decades, the maize seed market in Kenya remains dominated by the parastatal seed company Kenya Seed Company, with multinational seed companies making major inroads. We assess whether parastatal and multinational seed companies have captured Kenya’s seed laws to the detriment of local small and medium seed companies (‘regulatory capture’), negatively effecting competition and the capacity of local companies to introduce new varieties in the hybrid maize seed market. We conducted in-depth interviews based on legal clauses with maize seed companies active in Kenya, as well as interviews with regulators and stakeholders. Results show that local companies do not feel disadvantaged compared to their multinational counterparts or the parastatal. However, all of them are wary of the entry of new actors. Moreover, through excessive procedures, the Kenyan government keeps a sovereign grasp over the seed sector. Despite frustrations with some of these excessive procedures, seed companies felt comfortable in the protective environment of the Kenyan seed market and were generally happy with the technical aspects of Kenya’s seed laws, which are based on international norms. We suggest some improvements to make Kenyan seed laws more conducive to varietal turnover, in line with seed companies’ suggestions and taking into account the political sensitivities of the Kenyan government.

Drought-tolerant maize varieties (DTMVs) offer hope as an adaptation strategy for farmers facing increasing frequency of droughts in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, these varieties are not yet widely cultivated, and the potential economic benefits not fully understood. Using predicted potential levels of scalability of DTMVs, we assess the potential economic impacts of investing in drought-tolerant maize varieties in Tanzania. The study uses household production and consumption data from major regions in Tanzania. The results from the economic surplus model indicate that by 2032, the adoption of DTMVs could generate between US$ 373 million and US$ 499 million in cumulative benefits for both producers and consumers. Such benefits could potentially lift up to 1.6 million people out of poverty by 2032. It is estimated that consumers would get 40% of the benefits and producers 60%, with the largest benefits occurring in the major maize-producing regions of Mbeya, Rukwa, Ruvuma, Mwanza, Arusha, and Kagera. Consumers in Dar es Salaam would also benefit significantly from the price reductions resulting from increased production. The largest returns on investment would occur in Dodoma, Geita, Simiyu, Singida, and Kagera. These findings justify the investment of both public and private funds to support the scaling of DTMVs in Tanzania.