Establishing and maintaining protected areas (PAs) are key tools for biodiversity conservation. However, this approach is insufficient for many species, particularly those that are wide-ranging and sparse. The cheetah Acinonyx jubatus exemplifies such a species and faces extreme challenges to its survival. Here, we show that the global population is estimated at ∼7,100 individuals and confined to 9% of its historical distributional range. However, the majority of current range (77%) occurs outside of PAs, where the species faces multiple threats. Scenario modeling shows that, where growth rates are suppressed outside PAs, extinction rates increase rapidly as the proportion of population protected declines. Sensitivity analysis shows that growth rates within PAs have to be high if they are to compensate for declines outside. Susceptibility of cheetah to rapid decline is evidenced by recent rapid contraction in range, supporting an uplisting of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List threat assessment to endangered. Our results are applicable to other protection-reliant species, which may be subject to systematic underestimation of threat when there is insufficient information outside PAs. Ultimately, conserving many of these species necessitates a paradigm shift in conservation toward a holistic approach that incentivizes protection and promotes sustainable human-wildlife coexistence across large multiple-use landscapes.population viability analysis | threat assessment | protected areas | landscape conservation | megafauna T he spread and dominance of humans across the world during the Anthropocene have precipitated a sixth global biodiversity extinction crisis (1). To maximize biodiversity retention through this period of rapid change, scarce conservation resources need to be targeted toward species and ecosystems that are most Significance Here, we compile and present the most comprehensive data available on cheetah distribution and status. Our analysis shows dramatic declines of cheetah across its distributional range. Most cheetah occur outside protected areas, where they are exposed to multiple threats, but there is little information on population status. Simulation modeling shows that, where cheetah population growth rates are suppressed outside protected areas, extinction risk increases markedly. This result can be generalized to other "protection-reliant" species, and a decision tree is provided to improve their extinction risk estimation. Ultimately, the persistence of protection-reliant species depends on their survival outside and inside protected areas and requires a holistic approach to conservation that engages rather than alienates local communities.

Summary1. Top predators can dramatically suppress populations of smaller predators, with cascading effects throughout communities, and this pressure is often unquestioningly accepted as a constraint on mesopredator populations. 2. In this study, we reassess whether African lions suppress populations of cheetahs and African wild dogs and examine possible mechanisms for coexistence between these species. 3. Using long-term records from Serengeti National Park, we tested 30 years of population data for evidence of mesopredator suppression, and we examined six years of concurrent radio-telemetry data for evidence of large-scale spatial displacement. 4. The Serengeti lion population nearly tripled between 1966 and 1998; during this time, wild dogs declined but cheetah numbers remained largely unchanged. Prior to their local extinction, wild dogs primarily occupied low lion density areas and apparently abandoned the longterm study area as the lion population 'saturated' the region. In contrast, cheetahs mostly utilized areas of high lion density, and the stability of the cheetah population indicates that neither high levels of lion-inflicted mortality nor behavioural avoidance inflict sufficient demographic consequences to translate into population-level effects. 5. Population data from fenced reserves in southern Africa revealed a similar contrast between wild dogs and cheetahs in their ability to coexist with lions. 6. These findings demonstrate differential responses of subordinate species within the same guild and challenge a widespread perception that lions undermine cheetah conservation efforts. Paired with several recent studies that document fine-scale lion-avoidance by cheetahs, this study further highlights fine-scale spatial avoidance as a possible mechanism for mitigating mesopredator suppression.

Summary 1.We evaluated one of the most extensive efforts to date to re-introduce an endangered species: attempts to establish an actively managed meta-population of African wild dogs Lycaon pictus in South Africa. 2. Using an information-theoretic approach, known-fate modelling in program mark was employed to estimate the survival of re-introduced wild dogs and their offspring, and to model covariate effects relative to survival. Multiple a priori hypotheses on correlates of re-introduction success were tested (collated from extensive individual experiences) using different re-introduction attempts as natural quasi experiments. 3. Survival analyses revealed that the determinants of re-introduction success can be reduced to two factors relevant for management, suggesting that wild dog re-introductions should be attempted with socially integrated animals that are released into securely fenced areas, unless measures are implemented to mitigate human-related mortalities outside protected areas. 4. Synthesis and application. This study illustrates that monitoring and evaluation of conservation efforts, complimented with expert knowledge, forms the foundation of informed decision-making to underpin management recommendations with scientific evidence, particularly if the proposed actions are controversial.