No abstract

Background Recent economic growth in Papua New Guinea (PNG) would suggest that the country may be experiencing an epidemiological transition, characterized by a reduction in infectious diseases and a growing burden from non-communicable diseases (NCDs). However, data on cause-specific mortality in PNG are very sparse, and the extent of the transition within the country is poorly understood. Methods Mortality surveillance was established in four small populations across PNG: West Hiri in Central Province, Asaro Valley in Eastern Highlands Province, Hides in Hela Province and Karkar Island in Madang Province. Verbal autopsies (VAs) were conducted on all deaths identified, and causes of death were assigned by SmartVA and classified into five broad disease categories: endemic NCDs; emerging NCDs; endemic infections; emerging infections; and injuries. Results from previous PNG VA studies, using different VA methods and spanning the years 1970 to 2001, are also presented here. Results A total of 868 deaths among adolescents and adults were identified and assigned a cause of death. NCDs made up the majority of all deaths (40.4%), with the endemic NCD of chronic respiratory disease responsible for the largest proportion of deaths (10.5%), followed by the emerging NCD of diabetes (6.2%). Emerging infectious diseases outnumbered endemic infectious diseases (11.9% versus 9.5%). The distribution of causes of death differed across the four sites, with emerging NCDs and emerging infections highest at the site that is most socioeconomically developed, West Hiri. Comparing the 1970–2001 VA series with the present study suggests a large decrease in endemic infections. Conclusions Our results indicate immediate priorities for health service planning and for strengthening of vital registration systems, to more usefully serve the needs of health priority setting.

Nanopore sequencing and phylodynamic modelling have been used to reconstruct the transmission dynamics of viral epidemics, but their application to bacterial pathogens has remained challenging. Here, we implement Random Forest models for single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) polishing to estimate divergence and effective reproduction numbers (Re) of two community-associated, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) outbreaks in remote Far North Queensland and Papua New Guinea (n = 159). Successive bar-coded panels of S. aureus isolates (2 × 12 per MinION) sequenced at low-coverage (> 5x - 10x) provided sufficient data to accurately infer assembly genotypes with high recall when compared with Illumina references. De novo SNP calling with Clair was followed by SNP polishing using intra- and inter-species models trained on Snippy reference calls. Models achieved sufficient resolution on ST93 outbreak sequence types (> 70 - 90% accuracy and precision) for phylodynamic modelling from lineage-wide hybrid alignments and birth-death skyline models in BEAST2. Our method reproduced phylogenetic topology, geographical source of the outbreaks, and indications of sustained transmission (Re > 1). We provide Nextflow pipelines that implement SNP polisher training, evaluation, and outbreak alignments, enabling reconstruction of within-lineage transmission dynamics for infection control of bacterial disease outbreaks using nanopore sequencing.

Community-associated, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) lineages have emerged in many geographically distinct regions around the world during the past 30 years. Here, we apply consistent phylodynamic methods across multiple community-associated MRSA lineages to describe and contrast their patterns of emergence and dissemination. We generated whole genome sequencing data for the Australian sequence type (ST) 93-MRSA-IV from remote communities in Far North Queensland and Papua New Guinea, and the Bengal Bay ST772-MRSA-V clone from metropolitan communities in Pakistan. Increases in the effective reproduction number (Re) and sustained transmission (Re > 1) coincided with spread of progenitor methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) in remote northern Australia, dissemination of the ST93-MRSA-IV geno-type into population centers on the Australian East Coast, and sub-sequent importation into the highlands of Papua New Guinea and Far North Queensland. Analysis of a ST772-MRSA-V cluster in Pakistan suggests that sustained transmission in the community following importation of resistant genotypes may be more common than previously thought. Applying the same phylodynamic methods to existing lineage datasets, we identified common signatures of epidemic growth in the emergence and epidemiological trajectory of community-associated S. aureus lineages from America, Asia, Australasia and Europe. Surges in Re were observed at the divergence of antibiotic resistant strains, coinciding with their establishment in regional population centers. Epidemic growth was also observed amongst drug-resistant MSSA clades in Africa and northern Australia. Our data suggest that the emergence of community-associated MRSA and MSSA lineages in the late 20th century was driven by a combination of antibiotic resistant genotypes and host epidemiology, leading to abrupt changes in lineage-wide transmission dynamics and sustained transmission in regional population centers.

In recent years, most of the focus on improving the quality of paediatric care in low-income countries has been on improving primary care using the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness, and improving triage and emergency treatment in hospitals aimed at reducing deaths in the first 24 hours. There has been little attention paid to improving the quality of care for children with chronic or complex diseases. Children with complicated forms of tuberculosis (TB), including central nervous system and chronic pulmonary TB, provide examples of acute and chronic multisystem paediatric illnesses that commonly present to district-level and second-level referral hospitals in low-income countries. The care of these children requires a holistic clinical and continuous quality improvement approach. This includes timely decisions on the commencement of treatment often when diagnoses are not certain, identification and management of acute respiratory, neurological and nutritional complications, identification and treatment of comorbidities, supportive care, systematic monitoring of treatment and progress, rehabilitation, psychological support, ensuring adherence, and safe transition to community care. New diagnostics and imaging can assist this, but meticulous attention to clinical detail at the bedside and having a clear plan for all aspects of care that is communicated well to staff and families are essential for good outcomes. The care is multidimensional: biomedical, rehabilitative, social and economic, and multidisciplinary: medical, nursing and allied health. In the era of the Sustainable Development Goals, approaches to these dimensions of healthcare are needed within the reach of the poorest people who access district hospitals in low-income countries.