This study aims to clarify the statistical causal relationship between the locations of urban facilities and forecasted population changes according to types of residential clusters in the Osaka Metropolitan Fringe areas. This paper’s background is the location optimization plan policy formulated by the Japanese MLIT (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism) in 2015. The methods combined urban ecological analysis, cohort analysis, and Bayesian network analysis. Using the Bayesian network analysis, the causal relationship between the forecasted population change ratio and the urban facility location was analyzed. The results suggest the location of urban facilities for each residential cluster that will prevent a rapid population decline in the future. Specifically, in the sprawl cluster, this study found that residential areas closer to medical facilities will sustain the future population, while in the old new-town cluster, this study found that residential areas closer to train stations will best sustain the future population. However, in the public housing cluster, residential areas more distant from regional resources will best sustain the future population. Therefore, it is worth considering different urban designs in the old new-town and public housing clusters, rather than the location optimization plan policy.

The purpose of this study was to identify the walkable streets where traffic behavior changed according to each residential cluster during the COVID-19 pandemic. By elucidating the changes, it is possible to identify streets that should be redesigned following the changes in traffic behavior in relation to human mobility. This study analyzed Ibaraki City, a suburban city located in the Osaka Metropolitan Area. The analysis compared the panel data of the GPS Location History for April 2020 and April 2019. The analysis method used was Empirical Bayesian kriging. The results show that the speed significantly increased in the dense, sprawl, mountain, and old NT clusters. It was also found that the number of cyclists increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. The results suggest a need to design walkable streets according to each residential cluster for the post-COVID-19 pandemic era. For example, some car lanes need to be converted to bike lanes in the main neighborhood to create walkable streets in the clusters.

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This study aims to clarify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on home range. The home range is the area that individuals traverse in conducting their daily activities, such as working and shopping. In Japan, the central government declared the first state of emergency in April 2020. This study analyzed the panel data for mobile phone GPS location history from April 2019 to April 2020 in Ibaraki City, Osaka Metropolitan area. The study applied the minimum convex polygon method to analyze the data. The results show that the home range decreased significantly between April 2019 and April 2020. Specifically, the home range in 2020 decreased to approximately 50% of that in 2019 because of COVID-19 infection control measures, preventing people from traveling far from their homes and only allowing them to step outside for the bare minimum of daily activities and necessities. The results suggest that the emergency reduced people’s home ranges to the neighborhood scale. Therefore, it is necessary to consider designing new walkable neighborhood environments after the COVID-19 pandemic era.

This study aimed to clarify the effect of walkability on urban sustainability, according to the types of residential clusters in the Osaka Metropolitan fringe area. For this purpose, this study analyzed the statistical causal relationship between the Walkability Index and the Ecological Footprint to Biocapacity (EF/BC) ratio of each residential cluster. The EF/BC ratio is the ratio of the ecological footprint of the biocapacity of the residential clusters. As a result, the effect of walkability on urban sustainability was clarified depending upon the types of residential clusters in the Osaka Metropolitan fringe area. Specifically, it was found that the Walkability Index negatively affects the EF/BC ratio in the sprawl cluster. This suggests that, in the sprawl cluster, active efforts to improve the Walkability Index can contribute to the realization of SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals of the 2030 Agenda). However, Walkability Index has a strong positive effect on the EF/BC ratio in the old new-town cluster, etc. For the residential clusters, the results of this study suggested that there is a necessity to improve urban sustainability through approaches other than improving Walkability.