No abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of aging on capital accumulation and welfare in a country with a sizable unfunded social security system. Using a two-period overlapping-generation model with endogenous retirement decisions, we show that both the type of aging and the type of unfunded social security system are important in understanding this impact. We consider two demographic changes, declining fertility and increasing longevity, and three types of pensions, defined contributions, defined benefits and defined annuities, to investigate the differences in implications of aging.

List of Figures, Tables and Boxes List of Fi ur s 1 Location of Kakuma refugee camp 2 Map showing Turkana County, Kenya 3 Layout of Kakuma refugee camp 4 Population of Kakuma refugee camp through the years, peaking at close to 200,000 in 2016 5 Narratives shaping the Turkana host communities' interactions with, and perceptions of refugees 6 Total impact is the sum of market and non-market impacts 7 Per capita consumption falls with distance from Kakuma refugee camp 8(a)(b) The fastest growing districts are in the center of Turkana County 9 Livestock holdings increase with distance from Kakuma refugee camp 10 Proportion of host community reporting negative (non-violent) refugee impacts 11 Proportion of host community reporting refugee violence or mistreatment 12 Proportion of host community reporting positive refugee impacts 13 Trends in positive and negative perceptions of refugees among the Turkana of Kakuma, Lorengo, Lokichoggio, Lodwar, and Lorugum 14 Total number of "worries" across locations in Turkana 15 "Worries" among the host community in Kakuma, disaggregated by gender and age 16 The effects of alternative integration policies on real wages and incomes in Turkana 1 Macroeconomic effects of refugee arrivals (encampment simulation results) suggest the refugee presence has a beneficial impact on Turkana's economy 2 Incomes and assets fall in value with distance from Kakuma refugee camp 3 Increases in refugees and aid are correlated with increased livestock prices 4 Kakuma refugee camp has a small but positive effect on farming 5 Comparison of housing statistics between Kakuma and counterfactual towns 6 Average BMI of host community members is higher in Kakuma and Lorugum than at Lorengo or Lokichoggio 7 Average host community SSF measurements are higher at Kakuma and Lorugum, suggesting residents have greater access to nutritional security and health 8 Macroeconomic effects on Turkana under the three scenarios; the full economic integration scenario is the most favorable 9 Macroeconomic effects on Kenya under the three scenarios List of T bl s v "YES" IN MY BACKYARD?

This paper analyzes the impact of aging on capital accumulation and welfare in a country with a sizable unfunded social security system. Using a two-period overlapping-generation model with endogenous retirement decisions, we show that both the type of aging and the type of unfunded social security system are important in understanding this impact. We consider two demographic changes, declining fertility and increasing longevity, and three types of pensions, defined contributions, defined benefits and defined annuities, to investigate the differences in implications of aging.

This series is published by the Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management (MFM) Global Practice of the World Bank. The papers in this series aim to provide a vehicle for publishing preliminary results on MFM topics to encourage discussion and debate. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. Citation and the use of material presented in this series should take into account this provisional character.