Population aging and its consequences are an extremely controversial issue in the global context. An increase in the number of older people along with a decrease in the birth rate leads to an excessive burden on the economically active part of the population. Such imbalances threaten to reduce the workforce, slow economic growth, increase social spending, increase the fiscal burden. Therefore, using the country’s own experience to solve the problem of rapid aging of the nation and take measures to improve the quality of life of older people and their social integration into society is insufficient, as changes in the age structure of the population may occur for the first time. Therefore, it is necessary to study and adapt the experience of other countries to address this social issue. The purpose of this study was to conduct a comparative analysis of the aging population in Iran and Poland, as well as to assess the impact of the nation’s aging on life expectancy, fertility and gross domestic product (GDP) in these two countries. The object of the study is Poland as a representative of European countries, which is facing an increase in the number of elderly people, and Iran as a country where the age structure of the population is just beginning to change. The study period is 1950-2020. The results of the study show that there has been an increase in the elderly population, but the share of this population compared to other countries is lower. The authors of the study proved the existence of significant differences in the aging population in Poland and Iran. A feature of the demographic situation in Iran is the declining birth rate, which leads to a decrease in the total population and an increase in the proportion of elderly people. These socio-demographic transformations in the long run can have a destructive effect on Iran’s GDP. In contrast to Iran, Poland is experiencing an increase in population aging, leading to rising spending on social security and protection, as well as falling GDP. The rapid growth of the elderly population compared to the growth of the total population of the country and the increase in the share of elderly people in the coming years emphasizes the need for further planning of control over the problems associated with this population group.

In the contemporary world, population aging and the factors affecting population aging are among the topics of interest of policymakers and planners in any country. Knowledge of this situation will help to regulate and even advance substantial population programs. This study aimed to investigate the trend of the demographic aging index in Islamic countries based on the analysis of survival history. The research method was descriptive-analytical, a type of applied research, and methods of collecting documentary information. The United Nations Population Database (1950 to 2020) was used for data collection. In the present study, 57 countries were grouped and studied in ten geographical areas. The statistical method used is survival history analysis. Data were analyzed using Stata statistical methods and non-parametric methods of estimating the survival function of the Kaplan-Meier method, Nelson-Aalen estimator, and the semi-parametric model of Cox’s proportional risk. Based on the results, it was found that the fertility index has a downward trend in the ten regions of the Islamic world. In contrast, the indicators of old age (with low acceleration) and life expectancy have an increasing trend. The probability of aging has a negative relationship with the total fertility rate and a positive correlation with life expectancy. Estimates of the survival function and cumulative risk for nine of the ten geographical regions (barring the Southern European region) of the Islamic world in 2020 indicate that the probability of aging in these regions is not significantly different. Likewise, the rate of entry into the aging phase does not differ significantly between the same geographical areas. Nevertheless, with the current trend of life expectancy and the reduction of fertility, many of these countries are likely to face the aging crisis in the coming years.