In this paper, we build and analyze a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission considering media coverage effects. Due to transmission characteristics of COVID-19, we can divided the population into five classes. The first class describes the susceptible individuals, the second class is exposed individuals, the third class is infected individuals, the fourth class is quarantine class and the last class is recovered individuals. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solutions of the model are discussed. The basic reproduction number
is obtained. All possible equilibrium points of the model are investigated and their local stability is discussed under some conditions. The disease-free equilibrium is local asymptotically stable when
and unstable when
. The globally asymptotical stability of all point is verified by Lyapunov function. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to confirm the analytical results and understand the effect of varying the parameters on spread of COVID-19. These findings suggested that media coverage can be considered as an effective way to mitigate the COVID-19 spreading.
Since the first outbreak in Wuhan, China, in December 31, 2019, COVID-19 pandemy has been spreading to many countries in the world. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemy has caused a major global crisis, with 554,767 total confirmed cases, 484,570 total recovered cases, and 12,306 deaths in Iraq as of February 2, 2020. In the absence of any effective therapeutics or drugs and with an unknown epidemiological life cycle, predictive mathematical models can aid in the understanding of both control and management of coronavirus disease. Among the important factors that helped the rapid spread of the epidemy are immigration, travelers, foreign workers, and foreign students. In this work, we develop a mathematical model to study the dynamical behavior of COVID-19 pandemy, involving immigrants' effects with the possibility of re-infection. Firstly, we studied the positivity and roundedness of the solution of the proposed model. The stability results of the model at the disease-free equilibrium point were presented when . Further, it was proven that the pandemic equilibrium point will persist uniformly when . Moreover, we confirmed the occurrence of the local bifurcation (saddle-node, pitchfork, and transcritical). Finally, theoretical analysis and numerical results were shown to be consistent.
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