To test the contagion effect of fear migration between countries, and to show its causality direction, our paper contributes to the economic literature by providing a new study based on migration fear indices quarterly data of France, Germany, United Kingdom and United States spanning period 1990–2019. Our empirical strategy is based on dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model and continuous wavelet transform analysis. Our results show a significant contagion effect of fear migration between the selected countries in pre and at the European Refugees crisis. The main findings of this work are changes level of conditional correlation in the two subsample periods, and changes in the arrow’s directions in red space of the phase difference between each two fear migration series. These findings indicate that European Refugees crisis changes the relationship between European Union countries and USA, and the Brexit changes the European people behavior towards migrants and refugees. Our findings offer a new directions and tracks in the international relations to the policy makers, moreover it calls into question the various studies examining economic interdependence and the contagion effect of financial crises and policies events on the different markets.

PurposeThis paper examines the effect of oil price uncertainty on corporate social responsibility (CSR) for 507 US firms over the period 1985–2019.Design/methodology/approachTo investigate the nexus between oil price uncertainty and CSR, we have proceeded with a fixed-effects panel regression model over the period 1985–2019.FindingsUsing a dataset of 507 US firms, different specifications of CSR and two alternatives measures of oil price uncertainty, we show that oil price uncertainty negatively influences the CSR in the global US panel and firm's characterized panel. This negative effect is dependent on firms' size, firm's age and value of book share of firms.Research limitations/implicationsUS firms are exposed to more risk when carrying high levels of debt, resulting in reduced spending to improve social and environmental conditions. While the negative effect of oil price uncertainty on CSR is exacerbated in economic crisis periods.Practical implicationsUS firms are influenced by energy price volatility especially by oil price fluctuations which are the main factor of American economic growth. The rise of oil price uncertainty reduces sustainable corporate development and investment in the green economy.Social implicationsRethinking renewable energies as an alternative solution in order to guarantee the performance and sustainability of social, environmental and cultural activities.Originality/valueYoung and small firms, lower-share outstanding firms and high book value per share firms are the most negatively affected by oil price uncertainty and therefore their social responsibilities are reduced. However, by introducing interaction variables in the main model, we find that the most indebted firms on one hand and big firms and high-number shares outstanding firms, on the other hand, are the most influenced by oil price uncertainty which consequently limits their social and environmental responsibility.

The aim of this paper is to examine the long run relationship between the world oil price, economic growth demand, and inflation in the developing country of Tunisia, by means of annual data base (1970-2008), univariate and multivariate tests of structural breaks, and cointegration analysis with multiple structural changes. Our empirical results indicate that by positively impacting the price level, oil price negatively impacts real output. The results also indicate that in Tunisia the monetary policy responds to a surge in the oil price in order to reduce or sustain any growth consequences. The ensuing higher inflation however prompts a subsequent tightening of monetary policy leading to a further decline in output. In addition, output does not revert quickly to its initial level after an oil price shock, but declines over an extended period.

To examine the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and pandemic uncertainty (PU) on Tunisian sectorial stock market returns, our paper contributes to the financial literature by providing a new study based on VAR-DCC-GARCH. This study uses the EPU and pandemic uncertainty indices and daily of eight Tunisian sector indices namely Automobile and Parts (AP), Banks, Basic Materials (BM), Building Construct Materials (BCM), Financials (FIN), Industrials (IND), Insurance (INS) and Food and Beverage (FB). The symmetric VAR-DCC-GJR-GARCH and VAR-DCC-EGARCH are the appropriate model for the empirical study. Results show a mixed sign of time varying correlation of sectors returns with EPU with respectively high and low significant long run and short run persistence of shocks. Evidence suggests that PU starts with a tranquil correlation and then becomes negative indicating the negative effect on sectors returns. In the last half of 2021, Tunisian investors succeed to overcome their fear and less risk averse.Jel codes : C32 ; D53 ; D74 ; G38 ; H12.