This paper examines co-movement between stock returns and changes in 10-year government bond yields as well as flight-to-quality behaviour in G7 countries. We conduct the wavelet squared coherence analysis to explore the dynamics in both time and frequency domain. Our results provide evidence of positive co-movements, which vary over time and across investment horizon. The higher co-movement is found to be more concentrated in the lower frequency bands. We further analyse the dynamic nature of the scale-dependent wavelet correlations and find that the correlations are highly volatile and significantly increase across different time scales during the episodes of equity market turbulence. The increase in correlations reflects flights from stocks to safer bond investments as a result of dramatic changes in investor sentiment and risk aversion at times of market stress. equal to the present value of all projected cash flows discounted at the appropriate discount rate. 1 Interest rates generally affect stock prices via two main channels. First, interest rate changes directly influence the discount rate in standard stock valuation models. Second, variations in interest rates impact cost of financing and hence significantly change expectations about cash flows. In other words, the rising cost of borrowing decreases the expected future cash flow, causing stock price to fall. Therefore, movements in interest rates may have a negative influence on stock prices. In this regard, bond yield variations also affect tactical portfolio allocation strategies which are closely followed for an efficient rebalancing between risk and return in order to impede the catastrophic effects of unanticipated changes in economic expectations.As a result of financial market integration, crises are transmitted from one economy (or asset) to another easily, becoming an epidemic. 2 This situation makes international diversification inefficacious in the presence of contagion at times of economic turmoil. Consequently, financial market participants are forced to avail themselves of different asset classes for diversification benefits. The phenomenon called as 'flight-to-quality' enables investors to redesign their portfolios towards less risky assets at times of distress. More commonly, bonds are viewed as quality assets against stocks. Hartmann et al. (2004) suggest that 'flight-to-quality is about as frequent as simultaneous crashes of stock and bond markets'. One of the most comprehensive definitions of 'flight-to-quality' (FTQ) phenomenon comes from Baur and Lucey (2009). 3 They advocate that the co-movements between stock and bond returns decline during stock market plunges. Investors flee from stocks to bonds in order to compensate the losses incurred in the equity markets at times of adverse stock market conditions. By contrast, they attribute the 'flightfrom-quality' to the decreasing co-movements in bullish market episodes. In this case, investors shift their holdings from bonds to stocks to exploit the potential profits from the rising equ...
The objective of this paper is to examine the shock and volatility spillovers between the oil market and five sectors in the Turkish equity market. We conduct a bivariate GARCH model to simultaneously estimate the mean and conditional variances between the series. We investigate daily returns from January 4, 2005 to June 12, 2013 and report significant unidirectional volatility transmission from oil market to all the sectors under investigation in addition to significant unidirectional shock transmission from oil market to some of the sectors. Our findings are suggestive for a deeper understanding of portfolio risk management in the presence of oil price fluctuations.
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