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BackgroundAs the global human population grows and its consumption patterns change, additional land will be needed for living space and agricultural production. A critical question facing global society is how to meet growing human demands for living space, food, fuel, and other materials while sustaining ecosystem services and biodiversity [1].Methodology/Principal FindingsWe spatially allocate two scenarios of 2000 to 2015 global areal change in urban land and cropland at the grid cell-level and measure the impact of this change on the provision of ecosystem services and biodiversity. The models and techniques used to spatially allocate land-use/land-cover (LULC) change and evaluate its impact on ecosystems are relatively simple and transparent [2]. The difference in the magnitude and pattern of cropland expansion across the two scenarios engenders different tradeoffs among crop production, provision of species habitat, and other important ecosystem services such as biomass carbon storage. For example, in one scenario, 5.2 grams of carbon stored in biomass is released for every additional calorie of crop produced across the globe; under the other scenario this tradeoff rate is 13.7. By comparing scenarios and their impacts we can begin to identify the global pattern of cropland and irrigation development that is significant enough to meet future food needs but has less of an impact on ecosystem service and habitat provision.Conclusions/SignificanceUrban area and croplands will expand in the future to meet human needs for living space, livelihoods, and food. In order to jointly provide desired levels of urban land, food production, and ecosystem service and species habitat provision the global society will have to become much more strategic in its allocation of intensively managed land uses. Here we illustrate a method for quickly and transparently evaluating the performance of potential global futures.

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The growing disconnect between humans and nature has implications for human well-being. Research has linked exposure to nature with various benefits including improved focus, vitality, productivity, and reduced stress, factors that may enhance the academic performance of individual students. In intensively-urbanized landscapes with few natural elements this effect could, via aggregated population-level impacts, influence the academic performance of entire populations, negatively affecting educational attainment and propagating urban poverty. Designing urban environments to provide increased interaction with natural landscape elements such as vegetation could mitigate this effect, benefiting the academic growth and future success of urban students. Recent studies support this idea; however, this effect is poorly understood, hindering the management of urban environments to improve educational outcomes. This study explores relationships between urban nature and the academic performance of urban schools using the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area of Minnesota, USA as a case study area. We used regression analysis to identify relationships among environmental variables on and around school campuses (i.e., tree cover, vegetated land covers, water) and four measures of populationlevel third-grade reading and mathematics success, accounting for school socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Contrary to expectations, we found a positive relationship between impervious surfaces and reading performance, while relationships between two vegetated land covers (grass, shrub) and water bodies and both mathematics and reading academic success were non-significant. We found a significant, positive relationship between tree cover and reading performance, suggesting that initiatives aimed at increasing tree cover in student environments could support academic success.