Improved understanding and prediction of the fundamental environmental controls on ecosystem service supply across the landscape will help to inform decisions made by policy makers and land-water managers. To evaluate this issue for a local catchment case study, we explored metrics and spatial patterns of service supply for water quality regulation, agriculture production, carbon storage, and biodiversity for the Macronutrient Conwy catchment. Methods included using ecosystem models such as LUCI and JULES, integration of national scale field survey datasets, earth observation products and plant trait databases, to produce finely resolved maps of species richness and primary production. Analyses were done with both 1×1km gridded and subcatchment data. A common single gradient characterised catchment scale ecosystem services supply with agricultural production and carbon storage at opposing ends of the gradient as reported for a national-scale assessment. Species diversity was positively related to production due to the below national average productivity levels in the Conwy combined with the unimodal relationship between biodiversity and productivity at the national scale. In contrast to the national scale assessment, a strong reduction in water quality as production increased was observed in these low productive systems. Various soil variables were tested for their predictive power of ecosystem service supply. Soil carbon, nitrogen, their ratio and soil pH all had double the power of rainfall and altitude, each explaining around 45% of variation but soil pH is proposed as a potential metric for ecosystem service supply potential as it is a simple and practical metric which can be carried out in the field with crowd-sourcing technologies now available. The study emphasises the importance of considering multiple ecosystem services together due to the complexity of covariation at local and national scales, and the benefits of exploiting a wide range of metrics for each service to enhance data robustness.

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Abstract. Volcanic emissions, specifically from Iceland, pose a pan-European risk and are on the UK National Risk Register due to potential impacts on aviation, public health, agriculture, the environment and the economy, from both effusive and explosive activity. During the 2014–2015 fissure eruption at Holuhraun in Iceland, the UK atmosphere was significantly perturbed. This study focuses one major incursion in September 2014, affecting the surface concentrations of both aerosols and gases across the UK, with sites in Scotland experiencing the highest sulfur dioxide (SO2) concentrations. The perturbation event observed was confirmed to originate from the fissure eruption using satellite data from GOME2B and the chemical transport model, EMEP4UK, which was used to establish the spatial distribution of the plume over the UK during the event of interest. At the two UK European Monitoring and Evaluation Program (EMEP) supersite observatories (Auchencorth Moss, SE Scotland, and Harwell, SE England) significant alterations in sulfate (SO42−) content of PM10 and PM2.5 during this event, concurrently with evidence of an increase in ultrafine aerosol most likely due to nucleation and growth of aerosol within the plume, were observed. At Auchencorth Moss, higher hydrochloric acid (HCl) concentrations during the September event (max  =  1.21 µg m−3, cf. annual average 0.12 µg m−3 in 2013), were assessed to be due to acid displacement of chloride (Cl−) from sea salt (NaCl) to form HCl gas rather than due to primary emissions of HCl from Holuhraun. The gas and aerosol partitioning at Auchencorth Moss of inorganic species by thermodynamic modelling confirmed the observed partitioning of HCl. Using the data from the chemical thermodynamic model, ISORROPIA-II, there is evidence that the background aerosol, which is typically basic at this site, became acidic with an estimated pH of 3.8 during the peak of the event.Volcano plume episodes were periodically observed by the majority of the UK air quality monitoring networks during the first 4 months of the eruption (August–December 2014), at both hourly and monthly resolution. In the low-resolution networks, which provide monthly SO2 averages, concentrations were found to be significantly elevated at remote “clean” sites in NE Scotland and SW England, with record-high SO2 concentrations for some sites in September 2014. For sites which are regularly influenced by anthropogenic emissions, taking into account the underlying trends, the eruption led to statistically unremarkable SO2 concentrations (return probabilities  > 0.1, ∼ 10 months). However, for a few sites, SO2 concentrations were clearly much higher than has been previously observed (return probability < 0.005,  > 3000 months). The Holuhraun Icelandic eruption has resulted in a unique study providing direct evidence of atmospheric chemistry perturbation of both gases and aerosols in the UK background atmosphere. The measurements can be used to both challenge and verify existing atmospheric chemistry of volcano plumes, especially those originating from effusive eruptions, which have been underexplored due to limited observations available in the literature. If all European data sets were collated this would allow improved model verification and risk assessments for future volcanic eruptions of this type.

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