Gaining knowledge of what contextual factors may contribute to changes in student achievement across cycles of international large-scale assessments (ILSA), is important for educational policy and practice. Addressing this necessitates advanced methodology that utilizes the trend design of the ILSAs. The Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) data is suitable for such analyses as it measures students’ competence based on the participating countries curricula. In Norway, students’ performance in mathematics decreased from 2015 to 2019 as evidenced by TIMSS. During this time-period, there are indications that also school climate, student motivation and self-concept decreased. This study investigates whether school climate (including bullying, a safe environment, school emphasis on academic success, and students’ sense of school belonging and well-being), student motivation (including interest-enjoyment and utility value), and self-concept declined from 2015 to 2019, and whether this possible decline is related to the decline in mathematics performance in Norway. The present study utilized a trend approach with mediation structural equation modelling. The results showed that school climate, the utility value of the subject and students’ self-concept declined during this period, and that a safe environment and student self-concept mediated the changes in achievement from TIMSS 2015 to 2019. Hence, declines in a safe school climate and student self-concept were associated with declining achievements. While the study cannot prove a causal relation, it is discussed whether this could indicate that the decline in these predictors may explain the decline in mathematics achievement. The usefulness of the methodological approach for other countries, as well as the implications of the results for policy, practice, and research are discussed.

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SAMMENDRAG Elevene som deltar i TIMSS 2015, undervises av laerere med forholdsvis lang erfaring. Svaert få av disse laererne mangler formell laererutdanning. Det er omtrent like mange elever som undervises av laerere med fagspesialisering som uten fagspesialisering. Dette gjelder både i matematikk og naturfag. Laererne trives med å vaere laerere og føler seg forholdsvis trygge både faglig og fagdidaktisk sett. Analysene av sammenhenger i dette kapitlet er foretatt på data fra 9. trinn, naturfag. Her viser det seg at laerernes faglige og fagdidaktiske trygghet har en sterk sammenheng med deres undervisningskvalitet, som igjen henger sammen med elevenes prestasjoner i naturfag.

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Even though equity is an important aim for the Nordic countries, for many of these countries, the effect of a student’s home background on their achievement seems to increase over time. If the aim is to reduce the effect of SES (socioeconomic status) on student outcomes, there is a need to identify the factors that moderate this relation. One such factor could be teachers and their instruction because they have been found to be key to student outcomes. However, few have linked teachers and their instruction to equity, and fewer still have made this link in Nordic countries. The aim of the present study is to identify the aspects of teacher quality and their instruction that may reduce the relationship between SES and student achievement in the Nordic countries. Eighth-grade students from the only two Nordic countries participating in TIMSS 2015 (Norway and Sweden) were selected. Multigroup, multilevel (students and classes) structural equation models with random slopes were employed to investigate which aspects of teacher quality moderate the relation between SES and student science achievement via instructional quality. The findings show that teacher professional development and specialisation reduce the relation between SES and science achievement via instructional quality in Sweden, while there were no significant findings for Norway. This study contributes to the fields of equity and teacher effectiveness, demonstrating that teachers may make a difference in reducing inequity through their competence and instruction.