Background: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) with resulting nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are increasingly a cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) globally. This burden is expected to increase as epidemics of obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome continue to grow. The goal of this analysis was to use a Markov model to forecast NAFLD disease burden using currently available data. Methods:A model was used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression in 8 countries based on data for adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Published estimates and expert consensus were used to build and validate the model projections. Results:If obesity and DM level off in the future, we project a modest growth in total NAFLD cases (0-30%), between 2016-2030, with the highest growth in China as result of urbanization and the lowest growth in Japan as result of a shrinking population.However, at the same time, NASH prevalence will increase 15-56%, while liver mortality and advanced liver disease will more than double as result of an aging/increasing population.Conclusions: NAFLD and NASH represent a large and growing public health problem and efforts to understand this epidemic and to mitigate the disease burden are needed.If obesity and DM continue to increase at current and historical rates, both NAFLD and 4 NASH prevalence are expected to increase. Since both are reversible, public health campaigns to increase awareness and diagnosis, and to promote diet and exercise can help manage the growth in future disease burden.Lay summary: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) can lead to advanced liver disease, and are occurring in increasing numbers in tandem with epidemics of obesity and diabetes. A mathematical model was built to understand how the disease burden associated with NAFLD and NASH will change over time. Results suggest increasing numbers of cases of advanced liver disease and liver-related mortality in the coming years. 5 BACKGROUNDNonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a leading cause of liver disease globally [1][2][3]. This condition is characterized by excess liver fat in the absence of other causes such as alcohol consumption [4,5]. Obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) and metabolic syndrome (MetS) are consistently identified as the most important risk factors for NAFLD [4,6].In order to classify the population, NAFLD may be divided into two groups: NAFL (steatosis only) or NASH (nonalcoholic steatohepatitis), where steatosis is accompanied by inflammation and ballooning. NASH frequently progresses to liver fibrosis [7] that is the main risk factor for liver-related mortality [8]. Odds of progression to advanced liver disease, including hepatic decompensation and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), are higher among those with NASH compared to those with NAFL [7]. Increasing age, obesity, DM and the presence of NASH have been consistently identified as risk factors for progression to cirrhosis [6,9].There is a...

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is characterized by inflammatory liver damageand is associated with a high risk of development of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Although histological examination of liver biopsies is currently the gold standard for the detection of early liver damage, there is a strong need for better noninvasive methods. We recently demonstrated that the proapoptotic activation of caspases is considerably enhanced in histological sections from HCV-infected liver tissue, suggesting an important role of apoptosis in liver damage. Here, we investigated whether caspase activation is detectable also in sera from patients with chronic HCV infection. Using a novel enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay that selectively recognizes a proteolytic neoepitope of the caspase substrate cytokeratin-18, we demonstrate that caspase activity is markedly increased in the sera of HCV patients. Interestingly, while 27% of patients with chronic HCV infection showed normal aminotransferase levels despite inflammatory and fibrotic liver damage, more than 50% of those patients exhibited already elevated serum caspase activity. Moreover, 30% of patients with normal aminotransferase but elevated caspase activity revealed higher stages of fibrosis. In conclusion, compared with conventional surrogate markers such as aminotransferases, detection of caspase activity in serum might be a more sensitive method of detecting early liver injury. Thus, measurement of caspase activity might provide a novel diagnostic tool, especially for patients with normal aminotransferases but otherwise undiagnosed histologically active hepatitis and progressive fibrosis. H epatitis C virus (HCV) is estimated to infect upto 200 million people worldwide-more than 3% of the world population. 1 HCV infection is characterized by inflammatory liver damage and a long viral persistence associated with a high risk of developing cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. There is increasing evidence suggesting that liver cell damage in chronic HCV infection is mediated by the induction of apoptosis. [2][3][4][5][6] The importance of apoptosis in HCV infection has originally been proposed in view of patho-morphological features, including cell shrinkage and fragmentation of the nucleus-particularly in areas of piecemeal necrosis, the presence of acidophilic bodies, and focal cell dropouts in the liver lobule, which are characteristic features of individually infected hepatocytes. 7 The molecular mechanisms and signal transduction pathways that cause liver cell damage during HCV infection have not been clearly defined. Over the last few years there has been increasing evidence that death receptor/ligand systems, particularly CD95, play a crucial role in liver damage. Both CD95 and its ligand CD95L have been shown to be up-regulated in HCV infection. 8 -11 Various recent studies demonstrate that the key morphological alterations of apoptosis are mediated by a family of intracellular cysteine proteases, called caspases, that cleave several cellul...

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is increasing in prevalence. It can be subdivided into nonalcoholic fatty liver (NAFL) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Five to twenty percent of cases progress from NAFL to NASH. Increased hepatic Th17 cells and IL-17 expression were observed in NASH mice and patients, respectively. We analyzed CD4+ effector T cells and regulatory T cells (Tregs) from peripheral blood and livers of NAFL and NASH patients. A total of 51 NAFL patients, 30 NASH patients, 31 nonalcoholic fatty liver disease patients (without histology), and 43 healthy controls were included. FACS analysis was performed on PBMCs and intrahepatic lymphocytes. Compared with healthy controls, a lower frequency of resting Tregs (rTregs; CD4+CD45RA+CD25++) and higher frequencies of IFN-γ+ and/or IL-4+ cells were detected among CD4+ T cells of peripheral blood in NASH, and to a lesser degree in NAFL. In hepatic tissue, NAFL to NASH progression was marked by an increase in IL-17+ cells among intrahepatic CD4+ T cells. To define immunological parameters in peripheral blood to distinguish NAFL from NASH, we calculated different ratios. Th17/rTreg and Th2/rTreg ratios were significantly increased in NASH versus NAFL. The relevance of our findings for NASH pathogenesis was highlighted by the normalization of all of the changes 1 y after bariatric surgery. In conclusion, our data indicate that NAFL patients show changes in their immune cell profile compared with healthy controls. NAFL to NASH progression is marked by an increased frequency of IL-17+ cells among intrahepatic CD4+ T cells and higher Th17/rTreg and Th2/rTreg ratios in peripheral blood.

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Infections with Staphylococcus aureus, a common inducer of septic and toxic shock, often result in tissue damage and death of various cell types. Although S. aureus was suggested to induce apoptosis, the underlying signal transduction pathways remained elusive. We show that caspase activation and DNA fragmentation were induced not only when Jurkat T cells were infected with intact bacteria, but also after treatment with supernatants of various S. aureus strains. We also demonstrate that S. aureus–induced cell death and caspase activation were mediated by α-toxin, a major cytotoxin of S. aureus, since both events were abrogated by two different anti–α-toxin antibodies and could not be induced with supernatants of an α-toxin–deficient S. aureus strain. Furthermore, α-toxin–induced caspase activation in CD95-resistant Jurkat sublines lacking CD95, Fas-activated death domain, or caspase-8 but not in cells stably expressing the antiapoptotic protein Bcl-2. Together with our finding that α-toxin induces cytochrome c release in intact cells and, interestingly, also from isolated mitochondria in a Bcl-2-controlled manner, our results demonstrate that S. aureus α-toxin triggers caspase activation via the intrinsic death pathway independently of death receptors. Hence, our findings clearly define a signaling pathway used in S. aureus–induced cytotoxicity and may provide a molecular rationale for future therapeutic interventions in bacterial infections.