Abstract. Wildlife population declines in Africa are widespread. However, species-specific population trends and dynamics in mammal community composition have rarely been described over long time periods. To describe population trends of 13 large herbivore species in Lake Manyara National Park (Tanzania) from 1959 to 2016 and to discover whether the herbivore community structure changed, we used general additive models and additional statistical methods to detect structural changes in the time series. Population dynamics were non-linear and population growth rates were not correlated with precipitation anomalies. Relatively steep population declines of three megaherbivores occurred during the 1980s and early 1990s, resulting in severe reductions in African elephant and buffalo populations and the local extinction of black rhinoceros. These declines coincided with reported peaks of illegal hunting of these species and expansion of agriculture at the periphery of the park. Population densities of elephant and buffalo seem to have stabilized in recent times, yet have not recovered to previous densities. In contrast, eight species (giraffe, zebra, waterbuck, wildebeest, warthog, impala, bushbuck, and baboon) have apparently fared well (similar or higher densities in most recent compared to first decade), despite having undergone substantial fluctuations over the past 58 yr. Population fluctuations in these species were likely caused by disease outbreaks, heavy bush encroachment, and reduced competition with buffalo. Possibly, declines in megaherbivore densities (mainly elephants) facilitated bush encroachment. Albeit grazers are still dominating in the herbivore community, the proportion of browsers is currently increasing, likely encouraged by dense vegetation in the shrub layer in large parts of the park. Overall, herbivore biomass density has declined by~40% compared to the baseline estimate in the first decade of the time series. Our analyses and ancillary information provide evidence that this overall decline in the herbivore assemblage was triggered by human-induced reductions in megaherbivore population densities during the 1980s, either through excessive poaching, insularization of the park, or both. Likely, this had cascading and interacting effects on the vegetation structure and the herbivore assemblage. Thus, legacy effects of ineffective megaherbivore conservation efforts 30 yr ago are likely still affecting the ecology of this national park.
Understanding how animals use information about their environment to make movement decisions underpins our ability to explain drivers of and predict animal movement. Memory is the cognitive process that allows species to store information about experienced landscapes, however, remains an understudied topic in movement ecology. By studying how species select for familiar locations, visited recently and in the past, we can gain insight to how they store and use local information in multiple memory types. In this study, we analyzed the movements of a migratory mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) population in the Piceance Basin of Colorado, United States to investigate the influence of spatial experience over different time scales on seasonal range habitat selection. We inferred the influence of short and long-term memory from the contribution to habitat selection of previous space use within the same season and during the prior year, respectively. We fit step-selection functions to GPS collar data from 32 female deer and tested the predictive ability of covariates representing current environmental conditions and both metrics of previous space use on habitat selection, inferring the latter as the influence of memory within and between seasons (summer vs. winter). Across individuals, models incorporating covariates representing both recent and past experience and environmental covariates performed best. In the top model, locations that had been previously visited within the same season and locations from previous seasons were more strongly selected relative to environmental covariates, which we interpret as evidence for the strong influence of both short- and long-term memory in driving seasonal range habitat selection. Further, the influence of previous space uses was stronger in the summer relative to winter, which is when deer in this population demonstrated strongest philopatry to their range. Our results suggest that mule deer update their seasonal range cognitive map in real time and retain long-term information about seasonal ranges, which supports the existing theory that memory is a mechanism leading to emergent space-use patterns such as site fidelity. Lastly, these findings provide novel insight into how species store and use information over different time scales.
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