Ch., Sutcliffe L., Leuschner Ch., 2017. Assessing future suitability of tree species under climate change by multiple methods: a case study in southern Germany. Ann. For. Res. 60(1): 101-126. Abstract.We compared results derived using three different approaches to assess the suitability of common tree species on the Franconian Plateau in southern Germany under projected warmer and drier climate conditions in the period 2061-2080. The study area is currently a relatively warm and dry region of Germany. We calculated species distribution models (SDMs) using information on species' climate envelopes to predict regional species spectra under 63 different climate change scenarios. We complemented this with fine-scale ecological niche analysis using data from 51 vegetation surveys in seven forest reserves in the study area, and tree-ring analysis (TRA) from local populations of five tree species to quantify their sensitivity to climatic extreme years. The SDMs showed that predicted future climate change in the region remains within the climate envelope of certain species (e.g. Quercus petraea), whilst for e.g. Fagus sylvatica, future climate conditions in one third of the scenarios are too warm and dry. This was confirmed by the TRA: sensitivity to drought periods is lower for Q. petraea than for F. sylvatica. The niche analysis shows that the local ecological niches of Quercus robur and Fraxinus excelsior are mainly characterized by soils providing favorable water supply than by climate, and Pinus sylvestris (planted) is strongly influenced by light availability. The best adapted species for a warmer and potentially drier climate in the study region are Acer campestre, Sorbus torminalis, S. aria, Ulmus minor, and Tilia platyphyllos, which should therefore play a more prominent role in future climate-resilient mixed forest ecosystems.

L., Teodosiu M., 2014. Ungulate browsing causes species loss in deciduous forests independent of community dynamics and silvicultural management in Central and Southeastern Europe. Ann. For. Res. 57(2): 267-288, 2014.Abstract. Grid-based inventories of 1,924 deciduous forests plots in Germany and 4,775 in Romania were used to investigate tree species composition as affected by browsing and grazing under different forest management (rotation forestry, selectively cut forest, protected forest). At regional scale, the loss of tree species in the dominant layer was between 52 to 67% in Germany and of 10 to 30% in Romania, with largest effects in protected nature reserves in Germany. At plot level, only 50% (Germany) to 54% (Romania) of canopy species were found in the regeneration layer with a height of 1.5 m. Browsing was influenced by the proportion of Fagus in the regenerating trees in Germany, and by stand density, basal area, and management in both regions. Structural equation modeling explained 11 to 26% of the variance in species loss based on the fresh loss of the terminal bud in the winter prior to the inventory work (one season browsing). Browsing (and grazing in Romania) is shown to be a significant cause of species loss across both countries and all management types. Potential cascading effects on other organisms of deciduous forest ecosystems are discussed. We conclude that the present hunting practices that support overabundant ungulate populations constitute a major threat to the biodiversity of deciduous forests in Germany and Romania and to other places with similar ungulate management, and that changes my only be possible by modernizing the legal framework of hunting.

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European beech (Fagus sylvatica) is a drought-sensitive species that likely will retreat from its xeric distribution edges in the course of climate warming. Physiological measurements indicate that the species may not only be sensitive to soil water deficits, but also to high temperatures and elevated atmospheric vapor pressure deficits (vpd). Through microclimatological measurements in the stand interior across near-natural beech forest–oak forest ecotones, we searched for microclimatic tipping points in the contact zone with the aim to define the thermic and hydrometeorological limits of beech more precisely. In three transects in the foothills of the Romanian western Carpathians, we measured in mid-summer 2019 air temperature, relative air humidity, and vpd at 2 m height in the stand interior across the ecotone from pure oak to pure beech forests, and compared the readings to the microclimate in forest gaps. Mean daytime temperature (T) and vpd were by 2 K and 2 hPa, respectively, higher in the oak forests than the beech forests; the extremes differed even more. Especially in the second half of the day, the oak forests heated up and were more xeric than the beech forests. Part of the differences is explained by the elevation difference between oak and beech forests (200–300 m), but species differences in canopy structure, leaf area, and canopy transmissivity enhance the microclimatic contrast. Our T and vpd data point to thresholds at about 30 °C and 25 hPa as maxima tolerated by beech in the lowermost shade canopy for extended periods. In conclusion, the rather sharp stand microclimatic gradient demonstrated here for the xeric distribution limit of beech may well be the decisive factor that hinders the spread of beech into the warmer oak forests.