The article analyses the trade performance of Ukraine under the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA). The practical results of the application of the DCFTA provisions on Ukraine's exports to the EU are presented and compares the results of a gravity model with actual trade to determine whether Ukraine's exports to the EU under the DCFTA have performed as expected. The findings follow with both traditional economic theory and ex ante models that expected a significant increase in exports overall and above normal trade growth and yet the reality has shown the contrary suggesting such ex ante modelling is not relevant or accurate for policy makers negotiating such agreements.

Introduction. The results of Ukraine’s activi­ties within the framework of the Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine, inclu­ding provisions on the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), improving market access means not only the reduction of tariffs, but also the reduction of non-tariff measures through alignment with EU rules. Problem. Competition between rules leads to convergence of standards in practice. However, the issue of continuation of national diversities is empirical. The aim of the study is to identify the rela­tionship between product groups with improved access and exports within the study of Euro­pean perspectives for the further development of Ukraine. Methods. The study uses general and special research methods. Results. It is substantiated that Ukrainian business can increase the productivity and effi­ciency of its activities by adopting EU standards by 13–30 %. It is established that a smaller share of imports in a particular country’s total imports would imply greater trade costs in that country for the exporting country, and vice versa. All products with HS4 codes which market share in EU is less than market share in the world are identified. Ineffective products within the scope of the DCFTA have been identified. In order to identify these products a special formula is pro­posed. An economic-mathematical approach for evaluating export growth in conditions of con­flict-free trade is proposed. Conclusions. Tariffs are not the only barrier to market entry in the EU. Some of the largest trade transaction costs have been seen to be a major barrier to export development which was addressed within the DCFTA. Further inves­tigation could be focus on assessing the compe­titiveness of products with improved access.

This article examines the relationship between exchange rate changes and export development within the context of the free trade agreement (DCFTA) between Ukraine and the EU. It argues that the effects of the exchange rate may be a greater influence than the FTA regime itself. After examining current theory and definitions, the article looks at difference measures of exchange rate, nominal, variations of the real exchange, exchange rate volatility and equilibrium exchange rate to identify causal links to Ukraine's trade before and after the DCFTA. It shows that there is a positive causal relationship between the real exchange rate and exports with devaluations during implementation had a significant impact on Ukraine's exports, and this effect is greatest on those products that benefited from better access under the FTA.

Марк Хеллаєр, аспірант, Київський національний торговельно економічний університет Директор компанії "СТА" (Великобританія), ЛІБЕРАЛІЗАЦІЯ ТОРГІВЛІ: ТЕОРІЯ, ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ НАСЛІДКІВ ВПРОВАДЖЕННЯ ТА ПРАКТИЧНІ РЕАЛІЇ Background. The competitive positions of countries and their companies largely depend on the nature of participation in international economic interaction. It has been proven that countries with high levels of economic development are benefiting from foreign trade through liberalization. However, it remains debatable how much positive expectations identified in trade liberalization theory can be put into practice in economically peripheral countries. The fundamental scientific basis for studying the correlation of economic openness in the context of the impact on economic growth, including ambiguous and contradictory impact of trade liberalization, have been studied by various scholars. However, since antagonists of trade liberalization theory often do not fully understand all the positive effects of its application, research in this area is relevant. The goal of this study is to analyze the development and foundations of trade liberalization theory, as well as to compare projections of the effects of trade liberalization between Ukraine and the EU under the terms of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) and the practical realities. The main results of the research. International trade theory provides explanations for the impact of international trade and the distribution of the gains from trade and particularly trade liberalisation through preferential trade agreements. Classical trade theory supports free trade and advocates against tariffs and restrictions. The assumptions behind the classical trade theory are the following: Completely free trade; no subsidies, tariffs, or commercial restrictions; Frictionless inter sectoral transfer of labour. However these assumptions do not hold in the real world and gives rise to the debate on the conditions under which free trade provides Gains from Trade. In the Heckscher Ohlin model of trade, each nation's comparative advantage is traced to its particular endowments of different factors of production: that is, basic inputs such as land, labour, and capital. Since the costs of these inputs in each country will depend on their availability, differences in factor endowments across countries will create differences in comparative advantage. Each country will tend to export items whose production requires intensive use of the factors with which it is abundantly endowed relative to other nations; conversely, each country will import goods whose production requires intensive use of factors that are relatively scarce. Therefore, countries well endowed with land, like Australia and Canada, and indeed Ukraine, are thus expected to export agricultural products (e.g., wheat and wool), while importing products that require the intensive use of labour (e.g., textiles and footwear). The article emphasized that Classical theory and Heckscher Ohlin theory is furth...