The Ebola virus is spreading throughout West Africa and is causing thousands of deaths. In order to quantify the effectiveness of different strategies for controlling the spread, we develop a mathematical model in which the propagation of the Ebola virus through Liberia is caused by travel between counties. For the initial months in which the Ebola virus spreads, we find that the arrival times of the disease into the counties predicted by our model are compatible with World Health Organization data, but we also find that reducing mobility is insufficient to contain the epidemic because it delays the arrival of Ebola virus in each county by only a few weeks. We study the effect of a strategy in which safe burials are increased and effective hospitalisation instituted under two scenarios: (i) one implemented in mid-July 2014 and (ii) one in mid-August—which was the actual time that strong interventions began in Liberia. We find that if scenario (i) had been pursued the lifetime of the epidemic would have been three months shorter and the total number of infected individuals 80% less than in scenario (ii). Our projection under scenario (ii) is that the spreading will stop by mid-spring 2015.

Various social, financial, biological and technological systems can be modeled by interdependent networks. It has been assumed that in order to remain functional, nodes in one network must receive the support from nodes belonging to different networks. So far these models have been limited to the case in which the failure propagates across networks only if the nodes lose all their supply nodes. In this paper we develop a more realistic model for two interdependent networks in which each node has its own supply threshold, i.e., they need the support of a minimum number of supply nodes to remain functional. In addition, we analyze different conditions of internal node failure due to disconnection from nodes within its own network. We show that several local internal failure conditions lead to similar nontrivial results. When there are no internal failures the model is equivalent to a bipartite system, which can be useful to model a financial market. We explore the rich behaviors of these models that include discontinuous and continuous phase transitions. Using the generating functions formalism, we analytically solve all the models in the limit of infinitely large networks and find an excellent agreement with the stochastic simulations.

Using an agent-based model we examine the dynamics of stock price fluctuations and their rates of return in an artificial financial market composed of fundamentalist and chartist agents with and without confidence. We find that chartist agents who are confident generate higher price and rate of return volatilities than those who are not. We also find that kurtosis and skewness are lower in our simulation study of agents who are not confident. We show that the stock price and confidence index—both generated by our model—are cointegrated and that stock price affects confidence index but confidence index does not affect stock price. We next compare the results of our model with the S&P 500 index and its respective stock market confidence index using cointegration and Granger tests. As in our model, we find that stock prices drive their respective confidence indices, but that the opposite relationship, i.e., the assumption that confidence indices drive stock prices, is not significant.

Real networks, like the international airport network and the Internet, are composed of interconnected layers (or communities) through a small fraction of nodes that we call here 'bridge nodes'. These nodes are crucial in the spreading of epidemics because they enable the spread the disease to the entire system. In this work we study the effect of the bridge nodes on the susceptibleinfected-recovered model in a two layer network with a small fraction r of these nodes. In the dynamical process, we theoretically determine that at criticality and for the limit r→0, the time t b at which the first bridge node is infected diverges as a power-law with r, while above criticality, it appears a crossover between a logarithmic and a power-law behavior. Additionally, in the steady state at criticality, the fraction of recovered nodes scales with r as a power-law whose exponent can be understood from the finite size cluster distribution at criticality. We also test our model on the real international airline network and show that 'high-degree bridge nodes' reduce the time t b .

In linguistic studies, the academic level of the vocabulary in a text can be described in terms of statistical physics by using a “temperature” concept related to the text's word-frequency distribution. We propose a “comparative thermo-linguistic” technique to analyze the vocabulary of a text to determine its academic level and its target readership in any given language. We apply this technique to a large number of books by several authors and examine how the vocabulary of a text changes when it is translated from one language to another. Unlike the uniform results produced using the Zipf law, using our “word energy” distribution technique we find variations in the power-law behavior. We also examine some common features that span across languages and identify some intriguing questions concerning how to determine when a text is suitable for its intended readership.