The Atlantic Ocean receives warm, saline water from the Indo-Pacific Ocean through Agulhas leakage around the southern tip of Africa. Recent findings suggest that Agulhas leakage is a crucial component of the climate system and that ongoing increases in leakage under anthropogenic warming could strengthen the Atlantic overturning circulation at a time when warming and accelerated meltwater input in the North Atlantic is predicted to weaken it. Yet in comparison with processes in the North Atlantic, the overall Agulhas system is largely overlooked as a potential climate trigger or feedback mechanism. Detailed modelling experiments--backed by palaeoceanographic and sustained modern observations--are required to establish firmly the role of the Agulhas system in a warming climate.

Citation: Dijkstra, H. A., and M. Ghil (2005), Low-frequency variability of the large-scale ocean circulation: A dynamical systems approach, Rev. Geophys., 43, RG3002,

We provide an overview of current techniques and typical applications of numerical bifurcation analysis in fluid dynamical problems. Many of these problems are characterized by high-dimensional dynamical systems which undergo transitions as parameters are changed. The computation of the critical conditions associated with these transitions, popularly referred to as 'tipping points', is important for understanding the transition mechanisms. We describe the two basic classes of methods of numerical bifurcation analysis, which differ in the explicit or implicit use of the Jacobian matrix of the dynamical system. The numerical challenges involved in both methods are mentioned and possible solutions to current bottlenecks are given. To demonstrate that numerical bifurcation techniques are not restricted to relatively low-dimensional dynamical systems, we provide several examples of the application of the modern techniques to a diverse set of fluid mechanical problems

Abstract. Climate - the "coarse-gridded" state of the coupled ocean - atmosphere system - varies on many time and space scales. The challenge is to relate such variation to specific mechanisms and to produce verifiable quantitative explanations. In this paper, we study the oceanic component of the climate system and, in particular, the different circulation regimes of the mid-latitude win driven ocean on the interannual time scale. These circulations are dominated by two counterrotating, basis scale gyres: subtropical and subpolar. Numerical techniques of bifurcation theory are used to stud the multiplicity and stability of the steady-state solution of a wind-driven, double-gyre, reduced-gravity, shallow water model. Branches of stationary solutions and their linear stability are calculated systematically as parameter are varied. This is one of the first geophysical studies i which such techniques are applied to a dynamical system with tens of thousands of degrees of freedom. Multiple stationary solutions obtain as a result of nonlinear interactions between the two main recirculating cell (cyclonic and anticyclonic) of the large- scale double-gyre flow. These equilibria appear for realistic values of the forcing and dissipation parameters. They undergo Hop bifurcation and transition to aperiodic solutions eventually occurs. The periodic and chaotic behaviour is probably related to an increased number of vorticity cells interaction with each other. A preliminary comparison with observations of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio Extensions suggests that the intern variability of our simulated mid-latitude ocean is a important factor in the observed interannual variability o these two current systems.

In the Essence project a 17‐member ensemble simulation of climate change in response to the SRES A1b scenario has been carried out using the ECHAM5/MPI‐OM climate model. The relatively large size of the ensemble makes it possible to accurately investigate changes in extreme values of climate variables. Here we focus on the annual‐maximum 2m‐temperature and fit a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to the simulated values and investigate the development of the parameters of this distribution. Over most land areas both the location and the scale parameter increase. Consequently the 100‐year return values increase faster than the average temperatures. A comparison of simulated 100‐year return values for the present climate with observations (station data and reanalysis) shows that the ECHAM5/MPI‐OM model, as well as other models, overestimates extreme temperature values. After correcting for this bias, it still shows values in excess of 50°C in Australia, India, the Middle East, North Africa, the Sahel and equatorial and subtropical South America at the end of the century.