Large-scale biogeographical shifts in vegetation are predicted in response to the altered precipitation and temperature regimes associated with global climate change. Vegetation shifts have profound ecological impacts and are an important climate-ecosystem feedback through their alteration of carbon, water, and energy exchanges of the land surface. Of particular concern is the potential for warmer temperatures to compound the effects of increasingly severe droughts by triggering widespread vegetation shifts via woody plant mortality. The sensitivity of tree mortality to temperature is dependent on which of 2 non-mutually-exclusive mechanisms predominates-temperature-sensitive carbon starvation in response to a period of protracted water stress or temperature-insensitive sudden hydraulic failure under extreme water stress (cavitation). Here we show that experimentally induced warmer temperatures (Ϸ4°C) shortened the time to droughtinduced mortality in Pinus edulis (piñ on shortened pine) trees by nearly a third, with temperature-dependent differences in cumulative respiration costs implicating carbon starvation as the primary mechanism of mortality. Extrapolating this temperature effect to the historic frequency of water deficit in the southwestern United States predicts a 5-fold increase in the frequency of regional-scale tree die-off events for this species due to temperature alone. Projected increases in drought frequency due to changes in precipitation and increases in stress from biotic agents (e.g., bark beetles) would further exacerbate mortality. Our results demonstrate the mechanism by which warmer temperatures have exacerbated recent regional die-off events and background mortality rates. Because of pervasive projected increases in temperature, our results portend widespread increases in the extent and frequency of vegetation die-off.biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks ͉ drought impacts ͉ global-change ecology ͉ Pinus edulis ͉ carbon starvation

Widespread tree mortality associated with drought has been observed on all forested continents and global change is expected to exacerbate vegetation vulnerability. Forest mortality has implications for future biosphere–atmosphere interactions of carbon, water and energy balance, and is poorly represented in dynamic vegetation models. Reducing uncertainty requires improved mortality projections founded on robust physiological processes. However, the proposed mechanisms of droughtinduced mortality, including hydraulic failure and carbon starvation, are unresolved. A growing number of empirical studies have investigated these mechanisms, but data have not been consistently analysed across species and biomes using a standardized physiological framework. Here, we show that xylem hydraulic failure was ubiquitous across multiple tree taxa at drought-induced mortality. All species assessed had 60% or higher loss of xylem hydraulic conductivity, consistent with proposed theoretical and modelled survival thresholds. We found diverse responses in non-structural carbohydrate reserves at mortality, indicating that evidence supporting carbon starvation was not universal. Reduced non-structural carbohydrates were more common for gymnosperms than angiosperms, associated with xylem hydraulic vulnerability, and may have a role in reducing hydraulic function. Our finding that hydraulic failure at drought-induced mortality was persistent across species indicates that substantial improvement in vegetation modelling can be achieved using thresholds in hydraulic function

Accumulating evidence highlights increased mortality risks for trees during severe drought, particularly under warmer temperatures and increasing vapour pressure deficit (VPD). Resulting forest die-off events have severe consequences for ecosystem services, biophysical and biogeochemical land-atmosphere processes. Despite advances in monitoring, modelling and experimental studies of the causes and consequences of tree death from individual tree to ecosystem and global scale, a general mechanistic understanding and realistic predictions of drought mortality under future climate conditions are still lacking. We update a global tree mortality map and present a roadmap to a more holistic understanding of forest mortality across scales. We highlight priority research frontiers that promote: (1) new avenues for research on key tree ecophysiological responses to drought; (2) scaling from the tree/plot level to the ecosystem and region; (3) improvements of mortality risk predictions based on both empirical and mechanistic insights; and (4) a global monitoring network of forest mortality. In light of recent and anticipated large forest die-off events such a research agenda is timely and needed to achieve scientific understanding for realistic predictions of drought-induced tree mortality. The implementation of a sustainable network will require support by stakeholders and political authorities at the international level.

Summary Determining physiological mechanisms and thresholds for climate‐driven tree die‐off could help improve global predictions of future terrestrial carbon sinks. We directly tested for the lethal threshold in hydraulic failure – an inability to move water due to drought‐induced xylem embolism – in a pine sapling experiment. In a glasshouse experiment, we exposed loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) saplings (n = 83) to drought‐induced water stress ranging from mild to lethal. Before rewatering to relieve drought stress, we measured native hydraulic conductivity and foliar color change. We monitored all measured individuals for survival or mortality. We found a lethal threshold at 80% loss of hydraulic conductivity – a point of hydraulic failure beyond which it is more likely trees will die, than survive, and describe mortality risk across all levels of water stress. Foliar color changes lagged behind hydraulic failure – best predicting when trees had been dead for some time, rather than when they were dying. Our direct measurement of native conductivity, while monitoring the same individuals for survival or mortality, quantifies a continuous probability of mortality risk from hydraulic failure. Predicting tree die‐off events and understanding the mechanism involved requires knowledge not only of when trees are dead, but when they begin dying – having passed the point of no return.

Homeostatic maintenance of gas exchange optimizes carbon gain per water loss. Homeostasis is regulated by short-term physiological and long-term structural mechanisms, both of which may respond to changes in resource availability associated with competition. Therefore, stand density regulation via silvicultural manipulations may facilitate growth and survival through mechanisms operating at both short and long timescales. We investigated the responses of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) to stand basal area manipulations in Arizona, USA. Stand basal area was manipulated to seven replicated levels in 1962 and was maintained for four decades by decadal thinning. We measured basal area increment (BAI) to assess the response and sustainability of wood growth, carbon isotope discrimination (A) inferred from annual rings to assess the response of crown gas exchange, and ratios of leaf area to sapwood area (A(l):A(s)) to assess longer term structural acclimation. Basal area treatments increased soil water potential (r2 = 0.99) but did not affect photosynthetic capacity. BAI increased within two years of thinning, and the 40-year mean BAI was negatively correlated with stand basal area (r2 = 0.98). delta was negatively correlated with stand basal area for years 5 through 12 after thinning (r2 = 0.90). However, delta was relatively invariant with basal area for the period 13-40 years after initial thinning despite maintenance of treatment basal areas via repeated decadal thinnings. Independent gas exchange measurements verified that the ratio of photosynthesis to stomatal conductance was invariant with basal area, but absolute values of both were elevated at lower basal areas. A(l):A(s) was negatively correlated with basal area (r2 = 0.93). We hypothesize that increased A(l):A(s) is a homeostatic response to increased water availability that maximizes water-use efficiency and whole-tree carbon uptake. Elevated A(l):A(s) of trees at low basal areas was associated with greater resilience to climate, i.e., greater absolute BAI during drought; however, trees with high A(l):A(s) in low basal area stands also exhibited the greatest sensitivity to drought, i.e., greater relative decline in BAI.