Many studies have dealt with the determinants of elderly migration, but none have done so from a time series perspective. This article focuses on the timing of elderly migration, or the factors that cause migration levels to be higher some years than other years. A model is developed for net migration of the elderly into rapidly growing areas. It is tested using data for three rapidly growing states: Florida, Arizona and Nevada. The model is found to explain a large proportion of the variation in annual levels of elderly net migration into these states and to provide estimates that track very well both inside and outside the sample period. The potential usefulness of the model in forecasting elderly and total population appears to be substantial.
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