Background:The epidemic of a novel coronavirus illness becomes as a global threat. The aim of this study is first to find the best prediction models for daily confirmed cases in countries with high number of confirmed cases in the world and second to predict confirmed cases with these models in order to have more readiness in healthcare systems. Methods:This study was conducted based on daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 that were collected from the official website of Johns Hopkins University from January 22 th , 2020 to March 1 th , 2020. Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the trend of confirmed cases. Stata version 12 were used.Results: Parameters used for ARIMA were (2,1,0) for Mainland China, ARIMA (2,2,2) for Italy , ARIMA(1,0,0) for South Korea, ARIMA (2,3,0) for Iran, and ARIMA(3,1,0) for Thailand.Mainland China and Thailand had almost a stable trend. The trend of South Korea was decreasing and will become stable in near future. Iran and Italy had unstable trends. Conclusions:Mainland China and Thailand were successful in haltering COVID-19 epidemic.Investigating their protocol in this control like quarantine should be in the first line of other countries' program

The high transmissibility, mortality, and morbidity rate of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B.1.617.2) variant have raised concerns regarding vaccine effectiveness (VE). To address this issue, all publications relevant to the effectiveness of vaccines against the Delta variant were searched in the Web of Science, Scopus, EMBASE, and Medline (via PubMed) databases up to 15 October 2021. A total of 15 studies (36 datasets) were included in the meta-analysis. After the first dose, the VE against the Delta variant for each vaccine was 0.567 (95% CI 0.520–0.613) for Pfizer-BioNTech, 0.72 (95% CI 0.589–0.822) for Moderna, 0.44 (95% CI 0.301–0.588) for AstraZeneca, and 0.138 (95% CI 0.076–0.237) for CoronaVac. Meta-analysis of 2,375,957 vaccinated cases showed that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine had the highest VE against the infection after the second dose, at 0.837 (95% CI 0.672–0.928), and third dose, at 0.972 (95% CI 0.96–0.978), as well as the highest VE for the prevention of severe infection or death, at 0.985 (95% CI 0.95–0.99), amongst all COVID-19 vaccines. The short-term effectiveness of vaccines, especially mRNA-based vaccines, for the prevention of the Delta variant infection, hospitalization, severe infection, and death is supported by this study. Limitations include a lack of long-term efficacy data, and under-reporting of COVID-19 infection cases in observational studies, which has the potential to falsely skew VE rates. Overall, this study supports the decisions by public health decision makers to promote the population vaccination rate to control the Delta variant infection and the emergence of further variants.

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Background length of stay (LOS) is the time between hospital admission and discharge. LOS has an impact on hospital management and hospital care functions. Methods A descriptive, retrospective study was designed on about 27,500 inpatients between March 2019 and 2020. Required data were collected from six wards (CCU, ICU, NICU, General, Maternity, and Women) in a teaching hospital. Clinical data such as demographic characteristics (age, sex), type of ward, and duration of hospital stay were analyzed by the R-studio program. Violin plots, bar charts, mosaic plots, and tree-based models were used to demonstrate the results. Results The mean age of the population was 40.8 ± 19.2 years. The LOS of the study population was 2.43 ± 4.13 days. About 60% of patients were discharged after staying one day in the hospital. After staying one day in the hospital, 67% of women were discharged. However, 23% of men were discharged within this time frame. The majority of LOS in the CCU, ICU, and NICU ranged from 5 to 9 days.; In contrast, LOS was one day in General, Maternity, and Woman wards. Due to the tree plot, there was a different LOS pattern between Maternity-Women and the CCU-General-ICU-NICU wards group. Conclusion We observed that patients with more severe diseases hospitalized in critical care wards had a longer LOS than those not admitted to critical care wards. The older patient had longer hospital LOS than the younger. By excluding Maternity and Woman wards, LOS in the hospital was comparable between males and females and demonstrated a similar pattern.