This paper evaluates the wage, employment, and hours effects of the first and second phase-in of the Seattle Minimum Wage Ordinance, which raised the minimum wage from $9.47 to as much as $11 in 2015 and to as much as $13 in 2016. Using a variety of methods to analyze employment in all sectors paying below a specified real hourly wage rate, we conclude that the second wage increase to $13 reduced hours worked in low-wage jobs by 6-7 percent, while hourly wages in such jobs increased by 3 percent. Consequently, total payroll for such jobs decreased, implying that the Ordinance lowered the amount paid to workers in low-wage jobs by an average of $74 per month per job in 2016. Evidence attributes more modest effects to the first wage increase. We estimate an effect of zero when analyzing employment in the restaurant industry at all wage levels, comparable to many prior studies.

This special issue of Social Service Review presents original research on the determinants and consequences of economic instability, with a focus on the interplay between instability and social policy. To frame that discussion, we define economic instability as repeated changes in employment, income, or financial well-being over time, particularly changes that are not intentional, predictable, or part of upward mobility. We also present a conceptual framework for how instability occurs in multiple domains of family life and how social policy has the potential to both buffer and exacerbate instability in employment and family structure. The articles in the volume engage many of these domains, including employment and program instability, and multiple areas of social policy, including workplace regulations and childcare subsidies. They also point to paths for future research, which we summarize in the final section of this introduction. Across many areas of life, instability marks the day-today reality of low-income Americans. Unpredictable employment and work schedules (Hollister 2011; Hollister and Smith 2014; Lambert, Fugiel, and Henly 2014), fluctuating public benefits (Lambert and Henly 2013; Mills et al. 2014; Ben-Ishai 2015), changes in romantic relationships and household composition (Cherlin 2010), and unwanted housing and neighborhood churning (Desmond, Gershenson, and Kiviat 2015; Desmond and Shollenberger 2015; Desmond 2016) all too commonly mark the lives of poor Americans. Taken together, these sources of economic instability create much greater income variability for low-income families than for their high-income counterparts, and this gap in income variability has grown larger in recent years (Morris et al. 2015). Both the causes of income variability and the fluctuations in resources have been shown to affect material hardship and adult and child outcomes (e.g.

Seattle raised its minimum wage to as much as $11 in 2015 and as much as $13 in 2016. We use Washington State administrative data to conduct two complementary analyses of its impact. Relative to outlying regions of the state identified by the synthetic control method, aggregate employment at wages less than twice the original minimum—measured by total hours worked—declined. A portion of this reduction reflects jobs transitioning to wages above the threshold; the aggregate analysis likely overstates employment effects. Longitudinal analysis of individual Seattle workers matched to counterparts in outlying regions reveals no change in the probability of continued employment but significant reductions in hours, particularly for less experienced workers. Job turnover declined, as did hiring of new workers into low-wage jobs. Analyses suggest aggregate employment elasticities in the range of —0.2 to —2.0, concentrated on the intensive margin in the short run and largest among inexperienced workers. (JEL J22, J23, J24, J31, J38, R23)

The link between policy design choices and health is an important, yet understudied area of public health research. I investigate the impact of the generosity, inclusion, and autonomy of state paid sick leave laws on influenza-like-illness (ILI) rates and its components using data from the Centers for Disease Control and state-level paid sick leave statutes. I found that paid sick leave policies that include small firms and that allow for a larger number of medical uses have lower ILI rates, relative to states with less comprehensive policies. States with policies that had more generous accrual rates and that included a wide variety of worker types (temporary, part-time, students) increased the total number of reported medical cases, relative to states with less comprehensive policies. Policymakers contemplating paid sick leave policies should consider these design choices in their goals to incentivize health care utilization and to reduce contagion.

Using administrative employment data from the state of Washington, we use short-duration longitudinal panels to study the impact of Seattle's minimum wage ordinance on individuals employed in low-wage jobs immediately before a wage increase. We draw counterfactual observations using nearest-neighbor matching and derive effect estimates by comparing the "treated" cohort to a placebo cohort drawn from earlier data. We attribute significant hourly wage increases and hours reductions to the policy. On net, the minimum wage increase from $9.47 to as much as $13 per hour raised earnings by an average of $8-$12 per week. The entirety of these gains accrued to workers with above-median experience at baseline; less-experienced workers saw no significant change to weekly pay. Approximately one-quarter of the earnings gains can be attributed to experienced workers making up for lost hours in Seattle with work outside the city limits. We associate the minimum wage ordinance with an 8% reduction in job turnover rates as well as a significant reduction in the rate of new entries into the workforce.