There has been a growing interest in using non-parametric regression methods like Gaussian Process (GP) regression for system identification. GP regression does traditionally have three important downsides: (1) it is computationally intensive, (2) it cannot efficiently implement newly obtained measurements online, and (3) it cannot deal with stochastic (noisy) input points. In this paper we present an algorithm tackling all these three issues simultaneously. The resulting Sparse Online Noisy Input GP (SONIG) regression algorithm can incorporate new noisy measurements in constant runtime. A comparison has shown that it is more accurate than similar existing regression algorithms. When applied to nonlinear black-box system modeling, its performance is competitive with existing nonlinear ARX models.

Linear Quadratic Gaussian (LQG) systems are well-understood and methods to minimize the expected cost are readily available. Less is known about the statistical properties of the resulting cost function. The contribution of this paper is a set of analytic expressions for the mean and variance of the LQG cost function. These expressions are derived using two different methods, one using solutions to Lyapunov equations and the other using only matrix exponentials. Both the discounted and the non-discounted cost function are considered, as well as the finite-time and the infinite-time cost function. The derived expressions are successfully applied to an example system to reduce the probability of the cost exceeding a given threshold.

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