Air pollution is a major problem that severely affects the health of inhabitants in developing countries’ urban areas. To deal with the problem, they may consider migration to another place as an option, which can result in the loss of skillful and talented workforces. This situation is called the brain drain phenomenon. The current study employed the Bayesian mindsponge framework (BMF) on the responses of 475 urban inhabitants in Hanoi, Vietnam—one of the most polluted capital cities in the world—to examine the risk of losing talented workforces due to air pollution. Our results show that people with higher educational levels are more likely to have intentions to migrate both domestically and internationally due to air pollution. Regarding the domestic migration intention, younger people and males have a higher probability of migrating than their counterparts. Age and gender also moderate the association between educational level and international migration intention, but their reliability needs further justification. Based on these findings, we suggest that environmental stressors caused by air pollution can influence citizen displacement intention on a large scale through the personal psychological mechanism of cost-benefit judgment. Due to the risk of air pollution on human resources, building an eco-surplus culture is crucial for enhancing environmental and socio-economic resilience.
We develop an endogenous growth model with human capital accumulation in which firms are polluting and heterogeneous individuals must decide, among other things, where to live. The main idea is that pollution is unequally spread across geographical locations, inducing a trade-off for individuals between environmental quality and leisure. In such economy, we show that a better environmental quality and/or a greater degree of inequality lead individuals to favour cleaner locations which, in turn, boosts long-term growth. Welfare-wise, we find that, in general, individuals prefer a greater level of consumption and leisure but lower growth and environmental quality than those which are possible to achieve. Moreover, we show that the sign of the impact of inequality on environmental quality is likely to be negative.
Many researchers believe that government expenditures promote economic growth at the first development stage. However, as public expenditure becomes too large, countries will suffer a huge tax burden and tax distortions. This suggests an optimal public expenditure at which economic growth rate is the highest. However, the optimal point would differ across countries because of differences in economic structure. In this present paper, the optimal public expenditure in the developing countries is analyzed. Based on descriptive statistics and regression analysis of 30 developing countries in the period 2004-2013, the findings of this paper are threefold: (i) public expenditure increases along with development level of countries; (ii) the optimal public expenditure is at 19. 375% of GDP; (iii) economic growth has a positive relationship with both investment and labor force, and a negative relationship with urbanization. Keywords Public expenditure; Economic growth; Fiscal policy; Government size References [1] U.F. Akpan, D.E. Abang, “Does government spending spur economic growth? Evidence from Nigeria”, Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development. 4(9) (2013) 36-52. [2] E. Abounoori, Y. Nademi, Government Size Threshold and Economic Growth in Iran (No. 259600001). EcoMod. [3] O.F. Altunc, C. AydÕn, “The Relationship between Optimal Size of Government and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria”, Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences. 92 (2013) 66-75.[4] H. Aly, M. Strazicich, “Is Government Size Optimal in the Gulf Countries of the Middle East? An empirical investigation”, International Review of Applied Economics. 14 (2000) Số trang.[5] S. Asimakopoulos, Y. Karavias, “The impact of government size on economic growth: A threshold analysis”, Economics Letters, S0165-1765(15) (2015) 00519-4. [6] R.J. Barro, Government spending in a simple model of endogeneous growth, Journal of political economy. 98 (5, Part 2) (1990) S103-S125. [7] IMF, “Public expenditure reform: Making difficult choices”, chapter 2, 2014.[8] P.V. İyidoğan, T. Turan, Government Size and Economic Growth in Turkey: A Threshold Regression Analysis, Prague Economic Papers, 26 (2) (2017) 142-154. [9] G. Karras, On the optimal government size in Europe: theory and empirical evidence, The Manchester School. 65(3) (1997) 280-294. [10] D.C. Mueller, Public choice: an introduction, In The encyclopedia of public choice, Springer, Boston, MA, 2004, pp. 32-48. [11] P. Pevcin, Does optimal size of government spending exist?, University of Ljubljana. 10 (2004) 101-135. [12] R. Ram, Government size and economic growth: A new framework and some evidence from cross-section and time-series data, The American Economic Review. 76(1) (1986) 191-203. [13] U.F. Akpan, D.E. Abang, “Does government spending spur economic growth? Evidence from Nigeria”, Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development. 4(9) (2013) 36-52. [14] E. Abounoori, Y. Nademi, Government Size Threshold and Economic Growth in Iran (No. 259600001). EcoMod. [15] O.F. Altunc, C. AydÕn, “The Relationship between Optimal Size of Government and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria”, Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences. 92 (2013) 66-75.[16] H. Aly, M. Strazicich, “Is Government Size Optimal in the Gulf Countries of the Middle East? An empirical investigation”, International Review of Applied Economics. 14(4) (2000) số trang.[17] D. Anderson, “Investment and Economic Growth”, World Development, 1990, pp. 1057-1079.[18] S. Asimakopoulos, Y. Karavias, “The impact of government size on economic growth: A threshold analysis”, Economics Letters. S0165-1765(15) (2015) 00519-4. [19] R.J. Barro, Government spending in a simple model of endogeneous growth, Journal of political economy. 98 (5, Part 2) (1990) S103-S125. [20] W. Chinnakum et al, Factors affecting economic output in developed countries: A copula approach to sample selection with panel data, International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 2013. [21] M. Fay, O. Charlotte, “Urbanization without growth: A not-so-uncommon phenomenon”, Policy Research Working Paper, no. 2412: The World Bank, 2000.[22] IMF, “Public expenditure reform: Making difficult choices”, chapter 2, 2014.[23] P.V. İyidoğan, T. Turan, Government Size and Economic Growth in Turkey: A Threshold Regression Analysis, Prague Economic Papers. 26(2) (2017) 142-154. [24] G. Karras, On the optimal government size in Europe: theory and empirical evidence, The Manchester School. 65(3) (1997) 280-294. [25] A.R. Kira, The Factors Affecting Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Developing Countries: The Case of Tanzania, European Journal of Business and Management. 5 (2013) 2222-1905. [26] M. Machado et al, “Economic Development and Economic Variables: An analyze of Emergent Countries”, Social Science Research Network, 2015. [27] D.C. Mueller, Public choice: an introduction. In The encyclopedia of public choice, Springer, Boston, MA, 2004, pp. 32-48. [28] H.O. Onchari, The relationship between public expenditure and economic growth in Kenya, University of Nairobi, 2013. [29] P. Pevcin, Does optimal size of government spending exist?, University of Ljubljana. 10 (2004) 101-135. [30] D. Potts, “Challenging the Myths of Urban Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Evidence from Nigeria”. World Development, 2012, pp. 1382-1393.[31] R. Ram, Government size and economic growth: A new framework and some evidence from cross-section and time-series data, The American Economic Review. 76(1) (1986) 191-203. [32] P. Romer, “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth”, Journal of Political Economy. 94 (1986) 1002-1037.[33] R.M. Solow, “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 70 (1956) 65-94.[34] P. Upreti, Factors Affecting Economic Growth in Developing Countries, Major Themes in Economics, 2015.
This paper investigates the determinants of external debt in developing countries. By analyzing the fixed effect model, with the panel data of 50 countries during 1996-2015, it shows that external debt has been increasing dramatically. This is because of an increase in debt accumulation in the past, public investment and exchange rate. By contrast, the pace of economic growth, inflation and net exports decreases the external debt.
This study explores the current situation of public spending of Vietnam in the period from 2007 to 2017. The results show that the total state budget expenditure has increased over the past 10 years; however the growth rate of public expenditure has reduced. The state budget deficit and the ratio of public debt to GDP have remained at a high level. The analysis also indicates that there has been an increase in the proportion of recurrent spending in total state budget expenditure. By constract, the percentage of investment expenditure tends to decrease. Expenditures on health, education and science and technology have risen in recent years. Keywords Public expenditure, budget deficit, public debt, development investment expenditures, recurrent expenditures References [1] Barro, Robert J., “Government spending in a simple model of endogeneous growth”, Journal of Political Economy 98 (1990) 5: 103-125.[2] Ngân hàng Thế giới, “Đánh giá chi tiêu công Việt Nam: Chính sách tài khóa hướng tới bền vững, hiệu quả và công bằng”, 2017.[3] Ngân hàng Thế giới, “Cải thiện hiệu suất và công bằng trong chi tiêu công”, 2017.[4] Sanjeev Gupta, Benedict Clements; Emanuele Baldacci and Carlos Mulas-Granados, “Fiscal Policy, Expenditure Composition and Growth in Low-Income Countries”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 24 (2005) 3, 441-463.[5] Vũ Sỹ Cường, “Cải cách chi tiêu công: Từ lý luận đến thực tiễn ở Việt Nam”, Viện Chiến lược và Chính sách Tài chính, 2018.
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