There are indications that persistent contrails can lead to adverse climate change, although the complete effect on climate forcing is still uncertain. A flight trajectory optimization algorithm with fuel and contrails models, which develops alternative flight paths, provides policy makers the necessary data to make tradeoffs between persistent contrails mitigation and aircraft fuel consumption. This study develops an algorithm that calculates wind-optimal trajectories for cruising aircraft while avoiding the regions of airspace prone to persistent contrails formation. The optimal trajectories are developed by solving a non-linear optimal control problem with path constraints. The regions of airspace favorable to persistent contrails formation are modeled as penalty areas that aircraft should avoid and are adjustable. The tradeoff between persistent contrails formation and additional fuel consumption is investigated, with and without altitude optimization, for 12 city-pairs in the continental United States. Without altitude optimization, the reduction in contrail travel times is gradual with increase in total fuel consumption. When altitude is optimized, a two percent increase in total fuel consumption can reduce the total travel times through contrail regions by more than six times. Allowing further increase in fuel consumption does not seem to result in proportionate decrease in contrail travel times.

There are indications that persistent contrails can lead to adverse climate change, although the complete effect on climate forcing is still uncertain. A flight trajectory optimization algorithm with fuel and contrails models, which develops alternative flight paths, provides policy makers the necessary data to make tradeoffs between persistent contrails mitigation and aircraft fuel consumption. This study develops an algorithm that calculates wind-optimal trajectories for cruising aircraft while avoiding the regions of airspace prone to persistent contrails formation. The optimal trajectories are developed by solving a non-linear optimal control problem with path constraints. The regions of airspace favorable to persistent contrails formation are modeled as penalty areas that aircraft should avoid and are adjustable. The tradeoff between persistent contrails formation and additional fuel consumption is investigated, with and without altitude optimization, for 12 city-pairs in the continental United States. Without altitude optimization, the reduction in contrail travel times is gradual with increase in total fuel consumption. When altitude is optimized, a two percent increase in total fuel consumption can reduce the total travel times through contrail regions by more than six times. Allowing further increase in fuel consumption does not seem to result in proportionate decrease in contrail travel times.

This paper describes a class of strategies for reducing persistent contrail formation with the capability of trading off between contrails and aircraft-induced emissions. The concept of contrail-frequency index is defined and used to quantify the contrail activities. The contrail-reduction strategies reduce the contrail-frequency index by altering aircraft's cruising altitude with consideration to extra emissions. The strategies use a user-defined factor to trade off between contrail reduction and extra emissions. The analysis shows that contrails can be reduced with extra emissions and without adding congestion to airspace. For a day with high contrail activities, the results show that the maximal contrail-reduction strategy can achieve a contrail reduction of 88%. When a tradeoff factor is used, the strategy can achieve less contrail reduction while emitting less emissions compared to the maximal contrail-reduction strategy. The user-defined tradeoff factor provides a flexible way to trade off between contrail reduction and extra emissions. Better understanding of the tradeoffs between contrails and emissions and their impact on the climate need to be developed to fully use this class of contrail-reduction strategies. The strategies provide a starting point for developing operational policies to reduce the impact of aviation on climate.

Cross-Polar routes offer new opportunities for air travel markets. Transpolar flights reduce travel times, fuel burns, and associated environmental emissions by flying direct paths between many North American and Asian cities. This study evaluates the potential benefits of flying wind-optimal polar routes and assessed their potential impact on climate change. An optimization algorithm is developed for transpolar flights to generate wind-optimal trajectories that minimize climate impact of aircraft, in terms of global warming potentials (relative to warming by one kg of CO 2 ) of several types of emissions, while avoiding regions of airspace that facilitate persistent contrail formation. Estimations of global warming potential are incorporated into the objective function of the optimization algorithm to assess the climate impact of aircraft emissions discharged at a given location and altitude. The regions of airspace with very low ambient temperature and areas favorable to persistent contrail formation are modeled as undesirable regions that aircraft should avoid and are formulated as soft state constraints. The fuel burn and climate impact of cross-polar air traffic flying various types of trajectory including flight plan, great circle, windoptimal, and contrail-avoidance are computed for 15 origin-destination pairs between major international airports in the U.S. and Asia. Wind-optimal routes reduce average fuel burn of flight plan routes by 4.4% on December 4, 2010 and 8.0% on August 7, 2010, respectively. The tradeoff between persistent contrail formation and additional global warming potential of aircraft emissions is investigated with and without altitude optimization. Without altitude optimization, the reduction in contrail travel times is gradual with increase in total fuel consumption. When altitude is optimized, a one percent increase in additional global warming potential, a climate impact equivalent to that of 4070kg and 4220kg CO 2 emission, reduces 135 and 105 minutes persistent contrail formation per flight during a day with medium and high contrail formation, respectively.

Future air traffic management systems are required to balance the conflicting objectives of maximizing safety and efficiency of traffic flows while minimizing the climate impact of aviation emissions and contrails. Integrating emission and climate models together with air traffic simulations improve the understanding of the complex interaction between the physical climate system, carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions and aviation activity. This paper integrates a national-level air traffic simulation and optimization capability with simple climate models and carbon cycle models, and climate metrics to assess the impact of aviation on climate. The capability can be used to make trade-offs between extra fuel cost and reduction in global surface temperature change. The parameters in the simulation can be used to evaluate the effect of various uncertainties in emission models and contrails and the impact of different decision horizons. Alternatively, the optimization results from the simulation can be used as inputs to other tools that monetize global climate impacts like the FAA's Aviation Environmental Portfolio Management Tool for Impacts.