This paper examines a clash between modern and post-modern security systems, which may generate cooperative security dilemmas. Cooperative security dilemmas are not state-centric concepts as traditional security dilemmas but apply to international systems. The variations of cooperative security dilemmas are tested in the context of Baltic Sea regional security complex, particularly the integration dilemma in the Nordic countries and the identity dilemma with Russia. The security and defense postures of some regional actors tend to follow modern security understandings that may produce cooperative security dilemmas in the post-modern security environment.

This paper will study the potential applicability of the strategic imagination method to international security analysis, which has been previously used to improve prognostic quality in business studies. The method should allow security experts to think about the future by considering “what if” situations, and creatively assess the probability of different threats, even those that appear as improbable to others. The components of the method include strategic fit (the actor’s competence between its abilities and the needs of market), structure (the degree of concentration and maturity), competitive advantages (the extent to which the resources denied to the competition can be gathered, for example, access to novel technology), and strategic focus (i.e., on cost advantages, a differentiated product or exploitation of a market niche), in which a strategic advantage can be obtained by changing rules or deliberately creating turbulence. Strategic imagination can promote an academic discussion on changing nature of global processes like the emergence of global security market and provide nonorthodox methods for advancing a qualitative security analysis. Educated forecasting by connecting today’s developments with strategic imagination offers an important component in building successful security strategies and supportive public policies, especially in what concerns psychological warfare. For example, in the current COVID-19 crisis, main efforts have been made to defend against its national consequences (e.g., various restrictions introduced by individual countries), and less attention has been paid to cooperative strategies that can significantly reduce the global spread of the virus.

In her 2021 State of the Union address, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stressed the need to improve EU cybersecurity. The threat landscape is diverse and changing, and includes disinformation and fake news, cyber-attacks on government infrastructure and interference in elections in third countries. With this in mind, in December 2020 the EU unveiled a new Cybersecurity Strategy that includes legislative and institutional initiatives: from the revision of the NIS Directive – the EU’s first cybersecurity legislation – to the establishment of a cybershield to identify large-scale cyber-attacks. To be effective in this field, which involves a multitude of actors, the EU will need to ensure robust cooperation and information exchange, both at national and European level, as well as with NATO.

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En su discurso de 2021 sobre el estado de la Unión, la presidenta de la Comisión Europea, Ursula von der Leyen, recalcó la necesidad de mejorar la ciberseguridad de la UE. El panorama de las amenazas es diverso y cambiante: desinformación y noticias falsas, ataques informáticos contra infraestructuras gubernamentales, injerencia en elecciones de terceros países, etc. Ante ello, en diciembre de 2020, la UE dio a conocer una nueva Estrategia de Ciberseguridad que incluye iniciativas legislativas e institucionales: desde la revisión de la Directiva NIS –la primera legislación sobre ciberseguridad de la UE– hasta el establecimiento de un ciberescudo para identificar los ataques cibernéticos a gran escala. Para ser efectiva en este campo, en que participan una multitud de actores, la UE deberá garantizar la cooperación y el intercambio de información de forma sólida, tanto a escala nacional como europea, así como con la OTAN.