Peer review information Jerome Staal and Kate Gao were the primary editors on this article and managed its editorial process and peer review in collaboration with the rest of the editorial team. Reprints and permissions information is available at www.nature.com/reprints.

Rumination is a cognitive style characterized by repetitive thoughts about one’s negative internal states and is a common symptom of depression. Previous studies have linked trait rumination to alterations in the default mode network, but predictive brain markers of rumination are lacking. Here, we adopt a predictive modeling approach to develop a neuroimaging marker of rumination based on the variance of dynamic resting-state functional connectivity and test it across 5 diverse subclinical and clinical samples (total n = 288). A whole-brain marker based on dynamic connectivity with the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) emerges as generalizable across the subclinical datasets. A refined marker consisting of the most important features from a virtual lesion analysis further predicts depression scores of adults with major depressive disorder (n = 35). This study highlights the role of the dmPFC in trait rumination and provides a dynamic functional connectivity marker for rumination.

Identification of predictive neuroimaging markers of pain intensity changes is a crucial issue to better understand macroscopic neural mechanisms of pain. Although a single connection between the medial prefrontal cortex and nucleus accumbens has been suggested as a powerful marker, how the complex interactions on a large-scale brain network can serve as the markers is underexplored. Here, we aimed to identify a set of functional connections predictive of longitudinal changes in pain intensity using large-scale brain networks. We re-analyzed previously published resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging data of 49 subacute back pain (SBP) patients. We built a network-level model that predicts changes in pain intensity over one year by combining independent component analysis and a penalized regression framework. Connections involving top-down pain modulation, multisensory integration, and mesocorticolimbic circuits were identified as predictive markers for pain intensity changes. Pearson’s correlations between actual and predicted pain scores were r = 0.33–0.72, and group classification results between SBP patients with persisting pain and recovering patients, in terms of area under the curve (AUC), were 0.89/0.75/0.75 for visits four/three/two, thus outperforming the previous work (AUC 0.83/0.73/0.67). This study identified functional connections important for longitudinal changes in pain intensity in SBP patients, providing provisional markers to predict future pain using large-scale brain networks.