Precise quantification of terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) has been recognized as one of the most important components in understanding the carbon balance between the biosphere and the atmosphere. In recent years, although many large-scale GPP estimates from satellite data and ecosystem models have been generated, few attempts have been made to compare the different GPP products at national scales, particularly for various climate zones. In this study, two of the most widely-used GPP datasets were systematically compared over the eight climate zones across China’s terrestrial ecosystems from 2001 to 2015, which included the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) GPP and the breathing Earth system simulator (BESS) GPP products. Additionally, the coarse (0.05o) GPP estimates from the vegetation photosynthesis model (VPM) at the same time scale were used for auxiliary analysis with the two products. Both MODIS and BESS products exhibited a decreasing trend from the southeast region to the northwest inland. The largest GPP was found in the tropical humid region with 5.49 g C m−2 d−1 and 5.07 g C m−2 d−1 for MODIS and BESS, respectively, while the lowest GPP was distributed in the warm temperate arid region, midtemperate semiarid region and plateau zone. Meanwhile, the work confirmed that all these GPP products showed apparent seasonality with the peaks in the summertime. However, large differences were found in the interannual variations across the three GPP products over different climate regions. Generally, the BESS GPP agreed better than the MODIS GPP when compared to the seasonal and interannual variations of VPM GPP. Furthermore, the spatial correlation analysis between terrestrial GPP and the climatic factors, including temperature and precipitation, indicated that natural rainfall dominated the variability in GPP of Northern China, such as the midtemperate semiarid region, while temperature was a key controlling factor in the Southern China and the Tibet Plateau area.

Disentangling drought impacts on plant photosynthesis is crucial for projecting future terrestrial carbon dynamics. We examined the separate responses of canopy structure and leaf physiology to an extreme summer drought that occurred in 2011 over Southwest China, where the weather was humid and radiation was the main growth-limiting factor. Canopy structure and leaf physiology were, respectively, represented by near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRv) derived from MODIS data and leaf scale fluorescence yield (Φf) derived from both Continuous SIF (CSIF) and global OCO-2 SIF (GOSIF). We detected contrasting responses of canopy structure and leaf physiology to drought with a 14.0% increase in NIRv, compared with 12.6 or 19.3% decreases in Φf from CSIF and GOSIF, respectively. The increase in structure resulted in a slight carbon change, due to water deficit-induced physiological constraints. The net ecosystem effect was a 7.5% (CSIF), 1.2% (GOSIF) and -2.96% (EC-LUE GPP) change in photosynthesis. Our study improves understanding of complex vegetation responses of plant photosynthesis to drought and may contribute to the reconciliation of contrasting observed directions in plant responses to drought in cloudy regions via remote sensing.

Drought is an event of shortages in the water supply, whether atmospheric, surface water or ground water. Prolonged droughts have negative impacts on ecosystems, agriculture, society, and the economy. Although existing drought index products are widely utilized in drought monitoring, the coarse spatial resolution greatly limits their applications on regional or local scales. Machine learning driven by remote sensing observations offers an opportunity to monitor regional scale droughts. However, the limited time range of remote sensing observations such as vegetation index (VI) resulted in a substantial gap in generating high resolution drought index products before 2000. This study generated spatiotemporally continuous Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) data spanning from 1901–2018 in southwestern China by machine learning. It indicated that four Classification and Regression Tree (CART) approaches, decision trees (DT), random forest (RF), gradient boosted regression trees (GBRT) and extra trees (ET), can provide valid local drought information by downscaling the Estación Experimental de Aula Dei (EEAD) data. The in-situ SPEI dataset produced by the Penman–Monteith method was used as a benchmark to evaluate the temporal and spatial performance of the downscaled SPEI. In addition, the necessity of VI in SPEI downscaling was also assessed. The results showed that: (1) the ET-based product has the best performance (R2 = 0.889, MAE = 0.232, RMSE = 0.432); (2) the VI provides no significant improvement for SPEI re-construction; (3) topography exerts an obvious influence on the downscaling process, and (4) the downscaled SPEI shows more consistency with the in-situ SPEI compared with EEAD SPEI. The proposed method can be easily extended to other areas without in-situ data and enhance the ability of long-term drought monitoring.

Quantifying the contributions of air temperature and precipitation changes to drought events can inform decision-makers to mitigate the impact of droughts while existing studies focused mainly on long-term dryness trends. Based on the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we analyzed the changes in drought events and separated the contributions of air temperature and precipitation to the risk of future drought events. We found that drought frequency, duration, severity, and month will increase in the future (56.4%, 63.5%, 82.9%, and 58.2% of the global land area in SSP245, and 58.1%, 67.7%, 85.8%, and 60.5% of the global land area in SSP585, respectively). The intermediate scenario has a similar pattern to the most extreme scenario, but low emission was found to mitigate drought risk. Globally, we found that air temperature will have a greater impact than precipitation on intensifying drought. Increasing precipitation will mitigate drought risks in some middle and high northern latitudes, whilst the trend in increasing air temperature will counter the effects of precipitation and increase the impact of droughts. Our study improves the understanding of the dynamics of future devastating drought events and informs the decision-making of stakeholders.