Introduction: Although forecasting electric vehicles’ growth in China was frequently reported in the literature, predicting electric vehicles market penetration as well as corresponding energy saving and carbon dioxide mitigation potential in a more suitable method is not well understood. Methods: This study chose the double species model to predict electric vehicles’ growth trajectory under mutually competitive conditions between electric vehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles. For comparison, it set two scenarios: with 200 and 300 vehicles per thousand persons at 2050. To give details on energy saving and carbon dioxide mitigation potential induced by electric vehicles’ market penetration, it further divided electric vehicles into five subgroups and internal combustion engine vehicles into seven subgroups, therein forming respective measurement formulas. Results: This paper solved the double species model and thus got its analytical formula. Then it employed the analytical formula to conduct an empirical study on electric vehicles market penetration in China from year 2010 to 2050. Under scenario 300, electric vehicles growth trajectory will emerge a quick growth stage during 2021–2035, thereafter keeping near invariant till 2050. Meanwhile, current internal combustion engine vehicles’ quick growth will continue up to 2027, then holding constant during 2028–2040, afterwards following a 10-year slowdown period. Scenario 200 has similar features, but a 2-year delay for electric vehicles and a 5-year lead time for internal combustion engine vehicles were found. On average, scenario 300 will save 114.4 Mt oil and 111.5 Mt carbon dioxide emissions, and scenario 200 will save 77.1 Mt oil and 73.4 Mt carbon dioxide emissions each year. Beyond 2032, annual 50.0% of road transport consumed oil and 18.6% of carbon dioxide emissions from this sector will be saved under scenario 300. Discussion: Compared with scenario 200, scenario 300 was more suitable to predict electric vehicle market penetration in China. In the short-term electric vehicle penetration only brings about trivial effects, while in the long-term it will contribute a lot to both energy security and carbon dioxide mitigation. The contribution of this article provided a more suitable methodology for predicting electric vehicle market penetration, simulated two coupled trajectories of electric vehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles, and discussed relative energy-saving and climate effects from 2010 to 2050.
This paper is to explore the problems of intelligent connected vehicles (ICVs) autonomous driving decision-making under a 5G-V2X structured road environment. Through literature review and interviews with autonomous driving practitioners, this paper firstly puts forward a logical framework for designing a cerebrum-like autonomous driving system. Secondly, situated on this framework, it builds a hierarchical finite state machine (HFSM) model as well as a TOPSIS-GRA algorithm for making ICV autonomous driving decisions by employing a data fusion approach between the entropy weight method (EWM) and analytic hierarchy process method (AHP) and by employing a model fusion approach between the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) and grey relational analysis (GRA). The HFSM model is composed of two layers: the global FSM model and the local FSM model. The decision of the former acts as partial input information of the latter and the result of the latter is sent forward to the local pathplanning module, meanwhile pulsating feedback to the former as real-time refresh data. To identify different traffic scenarios in a cerebrum-like way, the global FSM model is designed as 7 driving behavior states and 17 driving characteristic events, and the local FSM model is designed as 16 states and 8 characteristic events. In respect to designing a cerebrum-like algorithm for state transition, this paper firstly fuses AHP weight and EWM weight at their output layer to generate a synthetic weight coefficient for each characteristic event; then, it further fuses TOPSIS method and GRA method at the model building layer to obtain the implementable order of state transition. To verify the feasibility, reliability, and safety of the HFSM model as well as its TOPSIS-GRA state transition algorithm, this paper elaborates on a series of simulative experiments conducted on the PreScan8.50 platform. The results display that the accuracy of obstacle detection gets 98%, lane line prediction is beyond 70 m, the speed of collision avoidance is higher than 45 km/h, the distance of collision avoidance is less than 5 m, path planning time for obstacle avoidance is averagely less than 50 ms, and brake deceleration is controlled under 6 m/s 2 . These technical indexes support that the driving states set and characteristic events set for the HFSM model as well as its TOPSIS-GRA algorithm may 1052 CMC, 2023, vol.75, no.1 bring about cerebrum-like decision-making effectiveness for ICV autonomous driving under 5G-V2X intelligent road infrastructure.
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