As a result of the international division of labor, the trade value distribution on different products substantiated by international trade flows can be regarded as one country’s strategy for competition. According to the empirical data of trade flows, countries may spend a large fraction of export values on ubiquitous and competitive products. Meanwhile, countries may also diversify their exports share on different types of products to reduce the risk. In this paper, we report that the export share distribution curves can be derived by maximizing the entropy of shares on different products under the product’s complexity constraint once the international market structure (the country-product bipartite network) is given. Therefore, a maximum entropy model provides a good fit to empirical data. The empirical data is consistent with maximum entropy subject to a constraint on the expected value of the product complexity for each country. One country’s strategy is mainly determined by the types of products this country can export. In addition, our model is able to fit the empirical export share distribution curves of nearly every country very well by tuning only one parameter.

Product diversity, which is highly important in economic systems, has been highlighted by recent studies on international trade. We found an empirical pattern, designated as the "S-shaped curve", that models the relationship between economic size (logarithmic GDP) and export diversity (the number of varieties of export products) on the detailed international trade data. As the economic size of a country begins to increase, its export diversity initially increases in an exponential manner, but overtime, this diversity growth slows and eventually reaches an upper limit. The interdependence between size and diversity takes the shape of an S-shaped curve that can be fitted by a logistic equation. To explain this phenomenon, we introduce a new parameter called "substitutability" into the list of capabilities or factors of products in the tri-partite network model (i.e., the countrycapability-product model) of Hidalgo et al. As we observe, when the substitutability is zero, the model returns to Hidalgo's original model but failed to reproduce the S-shaped curve. However, in a plot of data, the data increasingly resembles an the S-shaped curve as the substitutability expands. Therefore, the diversity ceiling effect can be explained by the substitutability of different capabilities.